Which teams stand out in the chase for Shōta Imanaga?
The clock is ticking but the Red Sox, Cubs and Angels are still holding in the race.
There's never a dull moment in Major League Baseball. This winter season is no exception, with clubs and players' moves keeping us on the edge of our seats. But among all the post-Yamamoto buzz, one name stands out: Shōta Imanaga. This Japanese left-handed pitcher's posting window is closing soon, leaving him with a ticking clock to strike a deal with an MLB club. He has till January 11 to join a team and finalize the paperwork.
A closer look at Shota Imanaga and his MLB potential
Imanaga, while not quite in the same league as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is a highly accomplished pitcher. His eight NPB seasons saw him amass a 2.96 ERA and two All-Star Game appearances.
Imanaga's Pitching Arsenal
Imanaga's pitching arsenal is quite impressive. His fastball, his primary offering, is celebrated for its innate "rising" action. This has led many to believe he will fit well in the MLB, where teams have shown a preference for pitchers capable of elevating their fastballs.
To mix things up, Imanaga often turns to his low-80s slider. This pitch generated almost 40% whiffs last season. If that percentage were to translate to MLB, it would place him among the top 10 left-handed starters in terms of sliders thrown.
There's also additional potential in Imanaga's split-change, which resulted in a nearly 50% whiff rate during the 2023 season.
Imanaga's career statistics are a testament to his pitching prowess. His win-loss percentage stands at .574 over eight seasons. He has an ERA of 2.96, with an impressive 9.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. These numbers position Imanaga as a strong mid-rotation starter in the MLB.
Shota Imanaga fired up after setting a new career-high with 15 Ks against the Giants (7/7/23).
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) January 7, 2024
He led NPB in K% in 2023 at 29%. It was the best mark of his career.
Would’ve tied for 5th-best in MLB with Pablo Lopez and Kodai Senga in 2023. pic.twitter.com/pRiNj9WbJM
Where Might Imanaga Go?
CBS Sports HQ's MLB insider Jim Bowden initially suggested the group of teams vying for Imanaga's services could include the Yankees, the Boston Red Sox, the San Francisco Giants, and the Chicago Cubs. The Yankees, per reports, ended up unimpressed with Imanaga, worrying about his fly ball potential in the Bronx; they stayed out of deeper negotiations. The other three teams pursued the lefty, but per Jon Heyman, the Giants spent Tuesday "looking elsewhere," just one day after Mark Feinsand had declared them the prohibitive favorites.
This crazy race might be down to the spendthrift Red Sox and Craig Counsell-led Cubs, a team that made an early managerial splash, but hasn't splashed cash this offseason.
The Yankees have lost significant depth in their rotation, due to their trade with the Padres for Juan Soto, which included Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and top prospect Drew Thorpe. Signing another top pitcher may cost even more money or require the Yankees to give up draft picks (Blake Snell, who rejected the qualifying offer). They may also have to trade away even more young talent to acquire a top pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease. Apparently, this has not deterred them, nor did it tip them in Imanaga's direction; they're not interested.
Imanaga and the Angels, Cubs or Red Sox
The Angels, who have a great need for a starter, cannot be disregarded. Despite signing Zach Plesac last week, the Angels' rotation remains thin. The Red Sox are also a potential destination for Imanaga, as he would become their sole left-handed starter after the recent trade of Chris Sale to the Braves and the signing of Lucas Giolito.
On Jan. 9, Jon Heyman of the New York Post stated on Twitter that the Red Sox and Cubs are still very much involved in the bidding for Imanaga, contradicting previous reports about the Giants' position. However, bidding for any free agent is constantly changing. Imanaga has less than 36 hours left to make a decision with a team. This creates an intriguing situation for the Cubs, especially since Craig Breslow, who previously worked in their front office, is now leading the Red Sox' baseball operations. There has been speculation that the Red Sox may need to cut their payroll before making any big moves in free agency, meaning there might be more to an Imanaga move than meets the eye. It wouldn't be surprising that Breslow's current and former teams share the same pitching ethos.
It has been reported that Imanaga could potentially receive a five-year, $100 million deal, which is likely around the limit of what the Cubs are comfortable offering to a free-agent starting pitcher. It is also possible that the Cubs' current offer is lower than that, which could be why Imanaga is waiting for a higher offer from the Red Sox before making a decision.
Imanaga's Potential Contract
Imanaga's potential contract is another talking point. His age and years of service in the NPB mean that he will not be classified as an amateur free agent, thus allowing him to command a larger contract. ESPN's Jeff Passan has reported that Imanaga could secure a nine-figure deal.
Posting Fee for Imanaga
In addition to the contract, any MLB team that signs Imanaga will need to pay a posting fee to the Yokohama Bay Stars, Imanaga's NPB team. This fee is calculated based on the value of the player's contract.
Imanaga's Future
Should Imanaga fail to secure a contract before the deadline, he would stay with the Bay Stars for another season. He could then attempt to make the leap to the MLB after the 2024 campaign.
In the end, the race to sign Shota Imanaga is heating up. With the Yankees and the Giants falling behind, all eyes are on Imanaga and where he will end up. Regardless of the outcome, his journey to MLB is certainly a thrilling ride for all baseball fans.