Relievers in Yankees’ and Dodgers’ ‘circle of trust’ heading into World Series

Ever since the Royals marched to their World Series title in 2015 on the backs of their triumvirate of bullpen aces, baseball has morphed into a game of dominant relief crews, especially on the biggest stage.

This year's widely anticipated clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees promises to offer a multitude of high-scoring affairs thanks to batting orders that are littered with current and former MVPs, including the soon-to-be 2024 hardware winners in Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. As such, some games are going to get out of hand early, which will prompt managers Dave Roberts and Aaron Boone to turn to their fire squad in the middle innings or sooner.

When that happens, the dugout leaders will have to make smart choices with which relievers they deploy. This is an all-hands-on-deck, best-of-seven series, though each team only has nine relievers to work with (assuming they bring four starters on their respective rosters). Both squads may have to get creative with their bullpen strategies in order to avoid taxing their high-leverage arms too much in the first half of the series.

When the games get close, though, and each pitch alters the win probability metrics by significant margins, where will the managers turn? Which pitchers in each bullpen should we expect to see when tensions run the highest?

Los Angeles Dodgers

The traditional roles of "setup man" and "closer" tend to go out the window during the playoffs, and that's especially true in the World Series. Thus, the "circle of trust" is more or less which relievers will be brought into close games at any point, rather than just the arms who are tasked with handling the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning on a nightly basis.

In L.A., there's an obvious 1-2 punch of late-inning arms that Roberts likes to rely on: Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips. Phillips has been the team's "closer" the last couple of seasons, leading the Dodgers with 42 saves since the start of 2023. He's been dominant thus far in the postseason, remaining scoreless in 6 2/3 innings across five appearances. After completely dominating the San Diego Padres in the NLDS (he retired all 13 batters he faced), the New York Mets did challenge him some in the NLCS, with six batters reaching base against him in just two appearances. It's also worth noting that Phillips' performance this season was less than stellar (relative to his standards), as he put up a 107 ERA+ after two years of comical results (353 ERA+ in 2022, 210 ERA+ in 2023). In other words, Phillips was just seven percent better than the average pitcher in 2024, compared to being 253% better than the average pitcher in 2022.

As such, Phillips has been deployed as a versatile, high-leverage arm, pitching whenever the Dodgers get in a tight jam. When the team needs a more traditional closer, they've turned to Treinen, who has accumulated three saves compared to Phillips' zero this postseason.

Like Phillips, Treinen has been been on fire in the playoffs, tallying up an impressive 11-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in eight innings. He allowed in the team's closeout win over the Mets in Game 6 of the NLCS, and has otherwise been nearly perfect. It should be no surprise that someone who can throw pitches like this has become the best reliever on the best team in the National League.

Besides their two-headed monster, the Dodgers also have fireballer Michael Kopech (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7K, 4BB) and veteran Daniel Hudson (4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3K, 1BB) as reliable options out of the pen. A key storyline in this series will be if the team can find a lefty (Anthony Banda? Alex Vesia?) that proves capable of consistently neutralizing the plethora of lefty boppers in the Bronx Bombers' lineup.

New York Yankees

Of course, the biggest story here is nominal closer Luke Weaver. He was strong in the regular season, leading the 'pen with 84 innings pitched and posting an impressive 2.89 ERA. He was brilliant in the ALDS against the Royals, pitching in all four games and allowing just two baserunners in 4 1/3 innings.

The Cleveland Guardians then found a way to get to him, as José Ramirez hit a home run in Game 2 off Weaver (that ultimately meant nothing), which preceded Jhonkensy Noel's momentum-shifting home run in Game 3 (that nearly sent the series sideways). He responded with two scoreless innings and the win in Game 5, and the Yankees need him to right the ship heading into the World Series.

Clay Holmes has re-earned Boone's trust after a mid-season implosion cost him the closer gig, locking down 11 straight scoreless appearances from the end of September through the start of the playoffs. However, he too has wavered recently, allowing three earned runs combined in his final two appearances in the ALCS. If another implosion occurs, it's more than likely that Holmes won't remain in the Yankees' high-leverage crew for long.

Tommy Kahnle is an underappreciated part of New York's bullpen, as he pitched to a 2.11 ERA in 50 appearances this season. He's allowed six walks in seven innings in the postseason, though, and allowed three hits to the Guardians after making three hitless appearances in the ALDS. Behind Weaver, he's probably Boone's best bet, but he might not be the right guy to bring into a dirty inning.

Beyond that trio, Tim Hill is a reliable-if-unspectacular lefty, and Jake Cousins (34.2% strikeout rate this season) has dominant stuff but has yet to fully harness it (12.9% walk rate). Mark Leiter Jr. was brilliant against lefties during his time with the Chicago Cubs, but has yet to fully recapture the splitter that made him so effective. Could Nestor Cortes or Marcus Stroman make a surprise long-relief appearance that turns the tide of the series (or, at the very least, saves the rest of the bullpen some bullets if a game gets out of hand)?

It's not a comfortable position to be in, but both managers are still determining exactly who on the periphery they can trust in this series. For now, expect to see a lot of guys like Treinen, Phillips, and Weaver, as both teams push their best relievers to the brink in the hunt for the World Series trophy.