Fansided

Jhonkensy Noel makes Cleveland postseason history with high-impact Game 3 homer

By Bill Felber |
Oct 12, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas (8) celebrates with outfielder Jhonkensy Noel (43) in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers during game five of the ALDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Oct 12, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas (8) celebrates with outfielder Jhonkensy Noel (43) in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers during game five of the ALDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

For postseason impact, they don’t come any larger in Cleveland than Jhonkensy Noel’s ninth-inning, last-out, game-tying home run against the Yankees Thursday night.

And David Fry’s 10th-inning winner isn’t far behind in that same category.

They’ve played postseason baseball 17 times over the course of more than a century in Cleveland, ever since Tris Speaker led the then-Indians to the 1920 World Series victory over Brooklyn.  That history encompasses more than 120 postseason contests.

But in all that time, no Indian/Guardian has produced a more statistically impactful single moment than Noel did Thursday night.

And Fry’s stunning game-winner one inning later also ranks on the list.

Coming as it did at the very precipice of a 5-3 defeat that would have sent the Guardians to a three-games-to-none disadvantage, Noel’s homer into the left field seats, with Lane Thomas on base, flipped the game’s likely outcome by a breathtaking 48 percent, from a 95 percent chance of a Yankee win to a 53 percent chance of a Guardians win.

In all the postseason games played by all the Indians/Guardians since Bill Wambsganss turned that unassisted triple play in 1920, no single play has ever switched the odds more in Cleveland’s favor.

Fry’s game winner was, from the standpoint of statistical impact, almost as significant. It flipped the outcome from a 63 percent likelihood of a Cleveland win to a 100 percent guarantee, a matter of 37 percent. That makes it the sixth most determinative moment in Cleveland postseason history.

Jhonkensy Noel, David Fry home runs rewrote playoff history books for Guardians

It’s also only the second  time in Cleveland postseason history that two such determinative shots were struck in the same game. To find the only parallel, one must go back to Game 1 of the 1995 ALDS between the Indians and Boston Red Sox. In that game, Albert Belle’s bottom of the 11th home run rescued the Indians from the jaws of a potential 4-3 loss. Two innings later, Tony Pena’s 13th inning home run was the game winner.

Cleveland went on to sweep that series and beat Seattle in a six-game ALCS before losing to Atlanta in six games in the World Series.

Here’s a table of the full top 10 most decisive moments in Cleveland postseason history. The table shows the player, the series game and season, the hit, and the change in impact. 

1. Jhonkensy Noel, Game 3, 2024 ALCS, home run, 48 percent (5 percent to 53 percent)

2. Tony Pena, Game 1, 1995 ALDS, home run, 46 percent (54 percent to 100 percent)

3. Albert Belle, Game 1, 1995 ALDS, home run, 43 percent (from 22 percent to 65 percent)

4. Tony Fernandez, Game 5, 1997 ALCS, home run, 41 percent (from 39 percent to 80 percent)

5. Rajai Davis, Game 7, 2016 World Series, home run, 39 percent (from 14 percent to 53 percent)

6 David Fry, Game 3, 2024 ALCS, home run, 37 percent (63 percent to 100 percent).

7. David Justice, Game 4, 1998 Division Series, double, 33 percent (from 42 percent to 75 percent)

8. Travis Fryman, Game 2, 1998 ALCS, single, 32 percent (from 59 percent to 91 percent)

9. Gene Beardon, Game 6, 1948 World Series, induced double play grounder, 29 percent (from 71 percent to 100 percent).

10. Jim Thome, Game 5, 1995 ALCS, home run, 27 percent (from 44 percent to 71 percent).

In terms of plays that actually swung an entire championship outcome, Noel’s hit still has a ways to go. That’s largely due to two reasons outside his control. First, it only changed a potential 3-0 series deficit to a 2-1 deficit. And second, he didn’t hit it in a World Series, where it’s easier to influence the championship outcome.

From that standpoint, the franchise leader remains Rajai Davis, whose memorable game-tying eighth inning home run against Aroldis Chapman and the Cubs in the seventh game of the 2016 World Series appeared to flip both the game and series outcome. That homer improved the likelihood of an eventual Cleveland championship by a healthy 39.04 percent.

Cleveland eventually lost that series, of course, on Chicago’s 10th inning post-rain rally.

Noel’s homer was helpful, but statistically it only enhanced the odds of the Guardians eventually emerging with the Commissioner’s Trophy by 6.10 percent. For championship impact, Fry’s game-winner checks in at 4.68 percent.

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