It's pretty unusual for the top prospect in baseball to be a free agent, but that's the situation facing every MLB team this winter. Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese phenom, is going to be posted to Major League Baseball this offseason.
Apparently, that time is coming as soon as this week, per ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Roki Sasaki Expected To Be Posted During Winter Meetings
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) December 8, 2024
What does this mean? ⬇️https://t.co/TbJBwbOA6O
Assuming the report is true and Sasaki is posted this week, that will open a 45-day period for the Japanese starter to choose any team that makes him an offer. However, if he doesn't sign before December 15, he'll have to wait until January 15 for bonus pools to reset before officially inking a contract.
Why will Sasaki wait for January to sign?
There's a lot of complex mechanics behind the MLB's international posting rules, but the most important facts for Sasaki's case are as follows:
1) The implications of him coming over to America now are vast, as he's forfeiting hundreds of millions of dollars due to the posting rules, which states that any international free agent who is under 25 years of age or hasn't played at least six seasons in another professional league cannot sign as a major league free agent.
2) As such, Sasaki will have to sign as a minor league free agent. He can be added to a team's 40-man roster immediately — though the signing team may wait until the end of spring training to maximize roster flexibility — but he'll be subject to the normal six years of team control (three years at the rookie-minimum salary, three years of arbitration) that all domestic prospects are. All he'll receive beyond that is a signing bonus.
3) Speaking of his bonus, most teams have already used up the majority of their 2024 international bonus pool, with the 2024 signing period ending next Sunday (December 15). In order to maximize his earnings now, Sasaki and his camp chose to delay his posting until now, so that he can sign when teams have the full allotment of their 2025 bonus pool at their disposal (after the 2025 signing period starts on January 15). Note that Sasaki can earn 100% of a team's bonus pool without restriction.
4) For the 2025 international signing period, eight teams have the maximum pool of $7,555,500: the Cincinnati Reds, the Detroit Tigers, the Miami Marlins, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Minnesota Twins, the Athletics, the Seattle Mariners, and the Tampa Bay Rays.
5) The Dodgers and Padres are the presumed favorites for Sasaki at the moment. Their bonus pools have a small, but non-negligible difference ($5,146,200 for the Dodgers, $6,261,600 for the Padres),
Anticipate plenty more news to come out on Sasaki at the Winter Meetings, especially now that Juan Soto is off the board. Just don't expect him to confirm a deal with any team before mid-January.