It's pretty unusual for the top prospect in baseball to be a free agent, but that's the situation facing every MLB team this winter. Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese phenom, is going to be posted to Major League Baseball this offseason.
The implications of him coming over to America now are vast, as he's forfeiting hundreds of millions of dollars due to the international posting rules; any international free agent who is under 25 years of age or hasn't played at least six seasons in another professional league cannot sign as a major league free agent.
That means that, like Shohei Ohtani before him, Sasaki will have to sign a minor-league deal with the team of his choosing. He will be given a large signing bonus, but the pool for that is capped at a relatively low figure for each team. Once he does make it to the big leagues, he'll have to play at a rookie salary for three seasons before playing another three while in arbitration.
A bit of a wrench was thrown into the plans this week, though, as MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred expressed belief that Sasaki will not sign before the middle of January.
Rob Manfred said he expects Roki Sasaki to sign with a major-league club as part of the 2025 international signing class. That would mean he doesn't sign before January 15.
— Jorge Castillo (@jorgecastillo) November 20, 2024
To understand why Sasaki plans to wait so long, it's important to note that the international bonus pools for teams reset during each signing class. The 2024 signing period ends on December 15, with a month hiatus before the 2025 period begins on January 15.
Most teams have already used up the majority of their 2024 international bonus pool. In order to maximize his earnings now, it behooves Sasaki to delay his posting until next month (players have 45 days to sign with a team after being posted).
For the 2025 international signing period, eight teams have the maximum pool of $7,555,500: the Cincinnati Reds, the Detroit Tigers, the Miami Marlins, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Minnesota Twins, the Athletics, the Seattle Mariners, and the Tampa Bay Rays. Sasaki can sign for 100% of a team's pool without restriction, though it's likely he'll have to take slightly less so that whichever team signs him can honor previous under-the-table agreements.
Notably, the presumptive favorites in the Sasaki sweepstakes all have relatively small bonus pool allotments available. The Los Angeles Dodgers ($5,146,200) and San Francisco Giants ($5,146,200) share the smallest pools around the league, as they were penalized $1 million each for signing free agents that declined the qualifying offer last year (the Dodgers exceeded the luxury tax and signed Shohei Ohtani; the Giants signed Blake Snell and Matt Chapman).
The San Diego Padres ($6,261,600) and Chicago Cubs ($6,261,600) both have pools roughly $1 million larger than that of the Dodgers. They're joined by a host of teams, like the New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Angels in that bonus pool tier.
With the news that Sasaki won't sign until mid-January at the earliest, teams will be able to shift their attention to some of the top domestic free agents on the board for right now. The Juan Soto hot stove is its own brand at this point, while pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried continue to dominate the headlines.