The New York Yankees’ three games to one division series victory over the Kansas City Royals was a textbook illustration of the micro factors that influence the outcome of postseason baseball.
The Yankees outscored the Royals by just two runs – 14-12 – across the four games, none of which was decided by more than two runs. When it was over, Royals fans had to look back on a succession of ‘ifs,’ any one or two of which could have changed the series outcome.
If MJ Melendez and Kyle Isbel had blasted their fifth and seventh inning fly balls to right on a calm night instead of one with the wind howling in, the Royals would have added three runs on Thursday and might be setting up for a Game 5 Saturday.
If Vinnie Pasquantino hadn’t sustained that fractured thumb a month ago, Kansas City’s three-hole stick might have fared better than one-for-16 with seven strikeouts and just one RBI.
If Bobby Witt Jr. had been Bobby Witt Jr., he might have done better than two-for-17 with five strikeouts and zero RBI.
During the regular season, Witt and Pasquantino combined to drove in 206 runs. In five games against the Yankees, they combined to drive in one, and left 14 runners on base, seven of them in scoring position.
If Royals starters had carried their fair share of the workload, perhaps the bullpen might not have been as stressed. During the regular season, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo combined to average a pretty consistent six innings per start. Against the Yankees, none of them made it past the fifth.
KC Royals' small failures led to ALDS loss to Yankees
The 2024 Royals were never an especially patient team. They drew only 429 bases on balls, their average of 2.6 per game ranking 14th among the 15 AL teams. Against Yankee pitching, however, they consistently chased outside the zone, drawing only seven walks in the four games. That was a main reason why their .306 regular season on-base percentage – not great to start with – dipped to .278 against the Yanks. It’s hard to win when you don’t get on base.
None of the above is designed to minimize or disparage the Yankees’ performance. Yankee pitchers coaxed Royals hitters into taking those bad cuts. Pasquantino made the decision to play with his injury.
And as for the wind knocking down two Royals home runs, well, if the Yankees can control that, then they really are unbeatable.
What it does illustrate is how decisive series are decided by anomalies, some of them freakish. The only thing a fan can count on is more anomalies to come, as October grinds toward November.
Defending Nick Castellanos, who spoke the truth about the Phillies and Mets (calltothepen.com)