The Athletics made a shocking move just ahead of the Winter Meetings. ESPN's MLB Insider Jeff Passan reports the A's have signed former Mets right-hander Luis Severino to a three-year, $67 million contract.
BREAKING: Right-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in the history of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying offer attached, Severino got well over market expectations.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024
As Passan notes in his post on X, it is the largest guaranteed contract given in the franchise's history.
The deal also includes an opt-out after 2026, allowing Severino to hit the market again after his age-32 season.
Severino proved to be durable workhorse for the New York Mets in 2024, making 31 starts and pitching 182 innings. It marked the first time since 2018, when he was a promising young starter for the New York Yankees, that he reached either milestone. He was an effective innings eater, pitching to a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a solid 161-60 strikeout to walk ratio.
Breaking down Severino's arsenal
Severino saw his fastball rebound in a big way with the Mets, as the run value on that pitch grouping jumped from -14 in 2023 to +10 in 2024. He still throws a very hard fastball in terms of velocity, as his four-seamer and sinker averaged 96.2 and 95.6 MPH, respectively.
The A's have had success with fastball-first guys, with the noted development of Mason Miller and his 101 MPH heater and Paul Blackburn, who utilized three different fastballs in his time with the A's. Severino fits that mold, as 1974 of the 2890 pitches (68.3%) he threw in 2024 were classified in the fastball grouping.
Another notable change in his repertoire for the better was the development of a sweeper. While it gets the same amount of drop as his slider, it gets more than twice as much horizontal break. The pitch yielded excellent results, as batters hit .139 and slugged .238 despite nearly an even split in terms of usage based on the handedness of the hitter. It's his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a 38.6% whiff rate.
One pitch that could use overhauling is the changeup. That's a big pitch he'll need to improve in order to be more effective against left-handed batters. As a starting pitcher, teams try to load their lineup with lefties to try to gain the platoon split in as many opportunities as possible. Severino will need to find something to neutralize the platoon split, as lefties slashed .269/.334/.440 against him in 2024.
Initial thoughts on contract
The deal is an overpay at face value, with Severino averaging $22.333 million per season. While he was a league-average innings eater for the Mets in 2024, there are some holes in his game that will have to be addressed. With the lack of a quality offspeed pitch, he's exceptionally vulnerable to left-handed hitters than a typical mid-rotation starter.
One key issue with Severino is the lack of swing-and-miss in his overall arsenal. Despite getting a healthy amount of chases, with his 29.7% rate ranking in the 60th percentile on Baseball Savant, he doesn't get a lot of whiffs. With just a 22.0% whiff rate and a 21.9% strikeout rate, Severino has to rely on pitching to contact to get outs.
He figured that out in 2024, as he yielded a hard-hit rate of only 35.9% and a barrel rate of 5.9%, which ranked in the 75th and 82nd percentile. That allows him to eat up innings, which in itself carries a lot of value for a rotation that will be cycling through a lot of young arms in 2025.
JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes are the likely three holdovers from their 2024 rotation. Osvaldo Bido and J.T. Ginn are candidates to fill out the final rotation spot and will likely compete for the fifth starter gig next spring.
Another complicating factor is that the A's will be playing in a minor league park in 2025. While they wait for a stadium to be built in Las Vegas for the 2028 season, they'll share a ballpark with the San Francisco Giants' Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento. Despite that issue, they found a way to sign an honest-to-goodness marquee free agent.
Since Severino declined his qualifying offer from the Mets, the A's will forfeit their third highest selection in the 2025 MLB Draft. That will likely be their second round selection, as they're projected to pick in the top round of the Competitive Balance Lottery. As a team that went over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2024, the Mets will only receive a selection after the fourth round.