Michael Toglia
Through his first 15 games in 2024, Michael Toglia’s slash line sat at a paltry .106/.143/.362. Though he had smacked four homers, he remarkably had only one other base hit in that span, leading to a laughable .044 BABIP. There was surely room for positive regression there, but he had only walked once and sported an atrocious 40.8% strikeout rate.
The Rockies weren’t going anywhere in another disappointing season, but Toglia’s performance was too poor even for them. He was demoted to AAA on April 24th and stayed there until June 6th, spending six weeks presumably learning how to hit a baseball again, or at least figuring out where the strike zone is.
Fortunately, it worked. Within a couple of weeks of his return to Colorado, he had cemented himself as their everyday first baseman and put together a solid second half.
Toglia slashed a respectable .233/.331/.469 after his nightmarish few weeks in April, grading out at approximately league average with a 50 wRC+ LASR. Though he continued striking out in bunches, he was a reliable slugger and, perhaps most importantly, posted an impressive BB% LASR of 65. His 13.0% walk rate from June forward was tied for sixth in MLB among qualified hitters.
Though his power numbers are already above average, his underlying metrics suggest there’s more boom in the Toglia tank. His Exit Velocity (EV), Barrel%, and HardHit% LASR grades were all 60 or above, and his bright-red profile on Baseball Savant confirms that Toglia knows how to pound the ball, with seven batted-ball metrics in the 90th percentile or higher.
His xwOBACON, which only considers balls put in play, was sixth in MLB among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Brent Rooker, and Marcell Ozuna. Obviously, his prevailing strikeout issues that aren’t reflected in xwOBACON detract from this point, but it’s clear that when he gets the bat on the ball, he can do as much damage as the best sluggers in the game.
Toglia is a clear positive regression candidate, as his expected stats were significantly higher than their result-based counterparts: .456 SLG/.503 xSLG and .329 wOBA/.358 xwOBA. Those differences ranked eighth and sixth, respectively, among hitters with 450 plate appearances. He also hit for less power than one would expect at Coors Field, which is probably an unlucky fluke that should be unexpected to continue.
Toglia was a first-round draft pick in 2019, so a breakout wouldn’t be unprecedented based on his pedigree. After bouncing between first base and the corner outfield for a while, from June 18th onward last year, he served only as the Rockies’ primary first baseman. With a solid hold on that position, Toglia may benefit in 2025 from having more stability and a longer leash than he’d get elsewhere.
His strikeouts are still concerning, but they come with the territory of being a "Three True Outcomes" hitter. By improving his walk rate, he has already shown an ability to develop a better understanding of the strike zone; if he can cut down on his whiffs even slightly, his value will soar.
With the potential to be a true middle-of-the-order bat, this could be the year Toglia establishes his spot in the next Rockies core.