Kyle Manzardo
While Michael Toglia and Otto Lopez had productive seasons last year by WAR, my third breakout pick was exactly replacement-level by bWAR and fWAR in the 156 plate appearances he picked up in his debut with the Guardians. For those who are sticklers on the definition of “breakout,” Kyle Manzardo is the most qualified candidate I’m presenting, since he has yet to provide positive value in the bigs.
A second-round draft pick by the Rays in 2021, Manzardo was traded to Cleveland in 2023 in a one-for-one swap for Aaron Civale. He continued performing well in the minors for the Guardians, but struggled in his first taste of big league action in May and June last year, slashing .207/.241/.329 with no home runs, three walks, and 23 strikeouts in 30 games before being sent back down.
When rosters expanded in September, Manzardo was promoted again and promptly hit his first two career home runs in his first game back. Throughout the month, he made a strong case to be a mainstay in Cleveland’s 2025 lineup.
It’s a small sample size compared to what I used for Toglia and Lopez, but in September, Manzardo was a comfortably above-average major league hitter, turning in a wRC+ LASR of 60. That production was fueled by power, with HR%, SLG, and ISO LASR grades all at 60 or above. He hit the ball hard and consistently put some air underneath it, with an excellent Launch Angle (LA) LASR of 65.
Like Toglia, his approach will come with strikeouts, but they appear to be far less of an issue with Manzardo. His walk rate came in around league average at a LASR of 50, but it was a significant improvement over his May and June showing. His 55 Avoid Chase% LASR also suggests potential for a higher volume of walks in the future.
All of these skills were far more apparent in Manzardo’s AAA numbers in 2024. Among hitters under 25 (to rule out non-prospects/veterans) with at least 250 plate appearances in AAA, Manzardo’s .387 xwOBA ranked second, and his results were an even better .401 (though he drops to fourth on that list). His walk rate was superb at 16.3% and was accompanied by a satisfactory 18.5% strikeout rate.
Defensively, Manzardo leaves a lot to be desired, as a first baseman who Cleveland will be limiting to designated hitter duties to start 2025. They signed Carlos Santana to a one-year deal earlier this offseason, so they may be allowing a transition year at first base as Manzardo works on his defense. If so, Santana could be a great mentor, as a veteran who just won his first Gold Glove at the age of 38.
For now, though, Manzardo should get a shot to be Cleveland’s everyday DH heading into 2025. The team will have a new hitting coach this year, having promoted Grant Fink from within the organization. Perhaps he can help facilitate Manzardo’s development, especially if they are already familiar with each other from their time together in the minors.
The Guardians clearly believe in Manzardo, having traded Civale when he had a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts in 2023. Manzardo has also already shown an ability to handle pressure, putting up an .842 OPS in the 2024 playoffs, including a home run in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees. With a full season of promising opportunities ahead, Manzardo seems poised to be in the Guardians’ next postseason lineup as well.