Edwin Uceta
In the 2023 calendar year, five separate teams decided to cut ties with Edwin Uceta, a former Dodgers international free agent signee whose career had produced 40.1 innings of substandard 5.80 ERA ball by the end of that season.
After the Diamondbacks, Tigers, Pirates, Mets, and Cubs all declined to continue their Uceta experiences, he signed a minor league deal with the Rays during the 2023 Winter Meetings.
That move may not have grabbed many headlines — Shohei Ohtani’s deal was announced the previous day and seems to have been discussed a tad more than Uceta’s — but its significance was not lost on Tampa Bay. After they lost several key pitchers to injuries, they needed somebody to step up and bridge the gap, reliably tossing some decent innings and not be terrible.
Instead, they oiled up the gears of the good old Rays development machine and turned yet another overlooked reliever into a bullpen big shot.
Over 41.2 innings in 2024, Edwin Uceta posted a brilliant 1.51 ERA and 1.70 FIP. On the LASR scale, adjustments are made for playing time based on progress toward qualification. For relievers I use 54 innings (one out per team game) as the qualifying threshold, which means Uceta’s already-impressive LASR scores have been slightly neutralized from even higher values.
Some people have differing definitions of “breakout” and might disqualify Uceta due to last year’s dominance. However, with less than 42 innings pitched in 2024, there isn’t enough evidence to sufficiently say Uceta is one of MLB’s best bullpen arms yet. Relievers frequently turn in fluky seasons in similar sample sizes; Bryan Hoeing had an identical 1.51 ERA as a reliever in 2024 and isn’t likely to replicate it.
By labeling Uceta as a breakout, I’m predicting he’s got more in the tank. That doesn’t necessarily mean a drastic improvement on that 1.51 ERA — there’s a limited capacity for progress there — but a comparable performance over a larger sample size is not hard to envision. With a full season of excellence to pair with his 2024 success, the 27-year old would prove to be one of baseball’s best relievers.
There are several factors setting Uceta apart from the wasteland of one-and-done relievers whose magical runs concluded as quickly as they began. The first telling signs are his ERA estimators: his FIP and SIERA both graded out to 70 on the LASR scale, even higher than his ERA. He showed little signs of weakness, with his K%, Prevent BB%, and Prevent HR% LASR scores all at 60 or above.
Breaking down his abilities further, he routinely makes batters whiff, chase, and make soft contact. The largest point against him is that his batted balls lean on the flyball side; however, he produced pop-ups (Infield Flyballs – IFFB) as well as any other reliever in 2024. If those flyballs continue to stay on the infield dirt, where they’re practically as effective as strikeouts, he doesn’t need to be a groundball maven.
The most obvious reason to believe in Uceta’s success may simply be the uniform he’s found himself in. Tampa Bay has made a habit of these rags-to-riches reclamation projects, and indeed have been credited with altering Uceta’s arm slot and pitch mix to help him realize his potential. If these adjustments serve as catalysts to real change, Edwin Uceta may find himself as a top-level high-leverage arm by season’s end.