Nick Mears
I mentioned earlier that there are different definitions of “breaking out” and that I’ve boiled down my choices to players who I predict will take a step up in their performances. For Edwin Uceta, that meant turning a great small sample into an elite larger sample. For Robert Garcia, a breakout would entail a jump from mediocre to indispensable bullpen piece.
For Nick Mears, a 28-year old with a career 5.20 ERA and even worse results in his largest sample size to date in 2024, the breakout bar will naturally be set closer to the ground. After spending a few years bouncing between the majors and minors for the Pirates and Rockies, Mears was acquired by the Brewers last summer and posted a terrible 7.30 ERA during their playoff push.
Believe it or not, though, there is hope to be found amidst the rubble of that disaster.
To be honest, Nick Mears is one of my choices because a valuable season from him would truly seem to come out of nowhere. However, there are signs of the possibility.
Despite his awful ERA LASR of 30 last year, all of his ERA estimators came out above league average at 55. If his results trend in that direction, he won’t necessarily be a high-leverage arm, but he’ll be much more useful than he’s been so far.
He clearly has the ability to rack up strikeouts, with a 60 K% LASR and 55 Whiff% and Chase% LASRs. This upside is also apparent in the raw capabilities of his pitch mix as measured by the Stuff+ model, which places him on the upper end of the reliever pool. The PitchingBot model graded him above average too, albeit to a lesser extent at 55 (not shown above).
As with Robert Garcia, one of the clearest factors in his poor 2024 performance was bad luck. His Prevent BABIP and LOB% LASR grades were both incredibly rough at 30. For reference, that was a .360 BABIP and a 59.8 LOB%, both of which were fourth-worst among relievers with 50 or more innings pitched. Both of those values should regress toward league average in the future.
Mears has shown a couple of concerning weaknesses that should be addressed. First is his control, which produced a below-average 45 Prevent BB% LASR in 2024. His major league walk rates, in fact, have always been bloated. However, they have also been steadily improving, and after his trade to Milwaukee, he only walked three batters in 12.1 innings for a better-than-average 5.7% walk rate.
Another cause for distress is the five home runs he allowed in that small-sample Brewers tenure. Before the trade, though, he gave up a shockingly low two home runs in 45.1 innings in Colorado, where home runs are a dime a dozen. Perhaps he made some adjustments in Milwaukee that led to better command at the expense of more pitches in the heart of the strike zone.
If Mears pitches a full season in 2025, it’s likely his walk rates and home run rates will normalize. The Brewers are another team known for transforming middling pitchers into shutdown relievers, so there is room for optimism that they can help him maintain his improved control while limiting long balls.
With a full season in Milwaukee ahead, Nick Mears could utilize his promising repertoire to become the next nobody-to-somebody success story.