These three MLB starting pitchers are destined to break out in 2025

A statistical deep dive into three future aces who are poised to turn in big seasons in 2025.

Sep 19, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field.
Sep 19, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
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While there are still free agents looking for new homes and trade partners plotting further roster shakeups, the time has come for our fridges to sign one-year contracts with brand-new calendars and for us to finally call the 2025 baseball season “this year.”

Now, with a new year upon us, it’s time to look forward and speculate about what lies ahead. For baseball fans, that includes exciting breakouts by players who have yet to hit their performative ceilings, players for whom 2025 will be the banner year in which they establish their place among the best in baseball.

Starting pitcher breakout candidates in 2025

In future articles, I will tackle relievers and position players, but first I will analyze the starting pitchers whose fortunes are due to rise this year. In my analyses, I will be using a project of mine called LASR (League-Adjusted Standardized Rating) which places all stats onto the same 20-80 scouting scale based on league qualifiers. On the scale, 50 is average and 10 points in either direction is one standard deviation (all data is sourced from FanGraphs).

So, without further ado, since baseball is known to be incredibly predictable and prophecies such as these absolutely never look silly in hindsight, it’s time to pronounce the starters who will prove to be undeniable aces in 2025.