Hunter Brown
The typically sure-footed Houston Astros shocked everyone in 2024 with a massive stumble out of the starting block, beginning the season with an ugly 7-19 record. Even after they worked their way out of that rut, it took a while to kick the gears into motion. They faced their largest deficit in the AL West on June 18th, when they were a full ten games behind the Seattle Mariners.
The starter on June 19th — the beginning of their destruction of that division lead — was Hunter Brown, whose season reflected that of his team’s almost perfectly. In his April 11th start in Kansas City, he faced 14 batters and 11 of them got base hits. His final line was absurdly rough: nine earned runs in just 2/3 innings pitched. It was his third start of the young season, and his ERA stood at 16.43.
Of course, as we all know, the Astros are inevitable. Despite the hole they dug themselves into, they won the AL West, and Brown enjoyed a remarkably similar turnaround.
Brown, who had excelled in a short debut in 2022 after showing promise as a prospect often compared to his idol Justin Verlander, followed up that cup of coffee with a replacement-level showing in his first full season in 2023. That disappointment, coupled with his poor start to 2024, had many wondering if he would be another bust in a long line of once-promising pitcher prospects.
After his Royal Disaster in April, though, Brown put up a sparkling 2.88 ERA in 162.1 innings, finishing the season with a respectable 3.49 ERA. Regardless of whether his rebound was due to regression or a true change in ability, there is more reason for optimism now than if the course of events had been reversed.
As can be seen in his LASR grades above, the biggest concern in his profile is his walk rate. However, his overall 2024 rate of 8.4% is somewhat skewed by his early-season performances. From May 11th on, that number was 7.3%, which isn’t great, but it’s certainly better and may indicate he figured something out that will carry over into further improvements.
Though he didn’t quite strike out batters at the commanding clip he showed in the minors (or even in his subpar 2023 season), he established himself as a master of soft contact. His Prevent EV (Exit Velocity) score of 70 put him in a tier behind only Michael King (75), and his Prevent Barrel% score of 75 was achieved by only him and Andre Pallante in 2024.
His effective groundball rate is another point in his favor and should help him immensely in Houston. Even when batters put the ball in the air, he is adept at inducing easy pop-ups (Infield Flyball – IFFB%), which are practically just as valuable as strikeouts. He also suffered from a poor BABIP showing in 2024, providing hope that a natural bounce back toward league average will further improve his results.
His relatively poor control requires caution, but if he can continue to make strides in that area, Brown has the makings of a potential ace. With the Astros’ knack for developing stellar pitchers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Brown blossom into the next headliner of a Houston team that refuses to bow out of competition.