The key to winning a postseason series is two-fold: Play your game and prevent the other guy from playing his game. Two games into the ongoing ALCS, the New York Yankees are playing their power and patience-oriented game. The Cleveland Guardians most decidedly are not playing their contact/pitching game. If that trend doesn’t change in Cleveland, this will be a short series.
The metamorphosis of the Guardians from 92-win AL Central champions to holistic incompetence has been stark and swift. Examine any category of performance, and the Guardians’ abandonment of the small-ball game that got them to the ALCS is obvious over the series' first two contest.
The only saving grace is that since two ALCS games does not make a persuasive sample size, there remains hope in Cleveland for a turnaround. But it better be swift and substantial.
Here’s a look at nine categories of Guardians performance during the regular season, then during the division series against Detroit, and finally through two desultory games of the ALCS. Some decline from the regular season to the playoff season – with its emphasis on toughened competition – is to be expected. But not this much or this broad.
Where Cleveland Guardians declined during ALCS' first two games vs. Yankees
Runs Per Game: In this most basic category of offensive performance, the Guardians averaged 4.40 during the regular season. Probably as expected, that fell to 3.9 against Detroit. But in two games against the Yankees, Cleveland’s offense has produced just 2.5 runs per game, all by itself likely a fatal falloff.
Batting Average: The Guardians hit a so-so .238 during the regular season, slightly below the league average. Against the Tigers, that slipped to .234…not unexpected. But against the Yankees, Cleveland is hitting just .209, an off-the-cliff level of decline.
On-Base Average: During the regular season, Cleveland survived with a very average .307 on-base average, five points below the major league average. It fell to .285 against the Tigers, and has fallen again against New York, now down to just.280. How bad is that? The 121-loss Chicago White Sox had a .278 on-base average this season.
Slugging Average: The Guardians slugged .395 during the regular season, again just under the .399 MLB average. In the Division Series, Cleveland’s slugging average dipped badly to .353. But two games into the ALCS, it has plummeted to .299. Nobody mistook Cleveland for a power team, but .299 is 40 points below the worst slugging average in baseball in 2024.
Left On Base Per Game: A team with limited offensive capability has to take advantage of the opportunities it is presented. During the regular season, the Guardians averaged 6.07 runners left on base per game. In the previous postseason round, that number not surprisingly rose slightly to 6.40. So far in the ALCS, it’s soared to 8.0.
Runs Allowed Per Game: The Guardians thrived on their pitching during the regular season. That included being third In MLB (trailing only Atlanta and Seattle) in fewest runs allowed per game, settling at 3.86. That pitching staff outdid itself in the Division Series against Detroit, holding the Tigers to 2.6 runs per game. But against the Yankees, Cleveland pitchers have allowed a destructive 5.5 runs per game.
ERA: The Guardians’ 3.61 ERA was easily superior to the MLB average of 4.07. That staff posted a 2.66 ERA against the Tigers. Against the Yankees, Guardians pitchers are carrying a brutal 5.06 ERA.
Strikeouts per Nine: This is the closest the guardians have come to a normal performance. Guardians pitchers fanned 8.9 batters per nine innings in the regular season, which fell to 6.6 Tigers in the Division Series, then returned to 8.0 Yankees per game through the first two contests.
Walks per Nine Innings: If one category synopsizes the Guardians’ postseason failures, this is it. During the regular season, they allowed just 3.1 walks per nine innings. That rose to 3.9 against the Yankees, and it has soared to 5.0 against the more patient Yankees. However good Cleveland is, it’s not good enough to survive giving the Yankees five free baserunners per game.
Dodgers, Guardians display the perils of bullpenning in 2024 MLB Playoffs (calltothepen.com)