After they both lost the battle for the offseason’s prize at the plate, the Yankees and Red Sox took their rivalry to the mound this week. On Tuesday night, Max Fried came off the free agency board by agreeing to a massive 8-year, $218 million deal with New York. Less than 24 hours later, Boston retaliated by acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a sizable prospect haul.
The Chicago White Sox will be receiving four prospects from the Boston Red Sox, all of whom are highly regarded, sources tell ESPN. It's a big return for Chicago, but for a pitcher like Crochet -- an ace-level starter with two years of cheap control -- that's the price to pay.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 11, 2024
BREAKING: Left-hander Max Fried and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a eight-year, $218 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 10, 2024
Fried and Crochet are both talented southpaws and former first-round picks, but their similarities stop there. Age, years of control, and other factors draw distinct lines between the acquisitions, but both teams were happy to leave the Winter Meetings with a new ace in tow. Which one will prove to be a better investment?
A deep dive on Max Fried and Garrett Crochet
Max Fried was drafted out of high school in 2012, going seventh overall to the Padres. He had Tommy John Surgery as a prospect, missing a chunk of the 2014 season and the entirety of 2015. While in recovery, he was traded to the Braves as part of the prospect package for Justin Upton.
This proved to be a steal for Atlanta, as Fried climbed steadily through their system, debuted in 2017, and occupied a top spot in their rotation starting in 2019. From 2019-2024, he ranked fourth in bWAR for starting pitchers, behind only Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, and Max Scherzer. Among pitchers with at least 800 IP, his 3.06 ERA ranked second behind only Cole.
Garrett Crochet was a college draftee, going 11th overall to the White Sox in 2020. With the pandemic wiping out the minor league schedule that year and the White Sox needing bullpen help, Crochet remarkably made a successful MLB debut later that season and even pitched in a playoff game.
He was a solid reliever in his first full season in 2021, but missed most of the next two seasons with injuries. However, the rebuilding White Sox fatefully gave him a shot in their starting rotation in 2024 and he took full advantage of the opportunity. He struck out 209 batters in only 146 innings in his excellent campaign, which culminated in his winning the AL Comeback Player of the Year award.
In a project of mine I call LASR (League-Adjusted Standardized Rating), I transform all stats to be expressed on a 20-80 scouting scale based on league qualifiers. On the scale, 50 is average and 10 points in either direction is one standard deviation (all data is sourced from FanGraphs). Below is a comparison of Fried’s and Crochet’s 2024 LASR stats, which clearly show each pitcher’s strengths.
Fried is a groundball merchant, with an elite GB% rating of 75. This keeps his home run totals low, which has been a consistent strength throughout his career. I haven’t added Statcast metric data to LASR yet, but his Baseball Savant profile shows his excellent ability to limit hard contact.
Though he had shown above-average control prior to 2024, his command took a downturn with an underwhelming Avoid BB% grade of 45. He has also missed time with injuries recently, including recurring blister and shoulder inflammation problems.
Crochet, on the other hand, is a strikeout fiend. After adding multiple new pitches to his repertoire and even gaining velocity on his fastball, he was the only MLB starting pitcher to post a K% rating of 80 last year.
Though missing bats is clearly his bread and butter, his walk rates and home run rates were both decent as well, and his poor BABIP could indicate even better luck in the future. However, 2024 was his first year as a starter and his workload was heavily restricted, putting question marks on his durability.
The circumstances and outlooks for each acquisition have stark differences. Fried will be in New York for the long haul, locking down his age 31-38 seasons. Crochet is much younger but only comes with two years of team control, accounting for his age-26 and 27 seasons. The door will be open for an extension, though, as he controversially requested one from prospective teams prior to the 2024 trade deadline.
Each club made sacrifices in these moves, but in significantly different ways. The Yankees opened up their wallets and dedicated $27.25 AAV of payroll space to Fried for the next eight years. For each of the next three seasons, they now have $155.25 million committed to only five players.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, gave up four prospects, including the well-regarded Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, their first-round picks from 2023 and 2024, respectively. Though Boston has more highly regarded prospects in their system, this represents a significant dip into their pool of talent.
Several factors will determine how Fried and Crochet fare with their new clubs. Fried’s reliance on ground balls is a good sign considering he's walking into homer-happy Yankee Stadium, but the inhabitants of New York’s 2025 infield are yet to be determined past Anthony Volpe and Jazz Chisholm. He'd heavily benefit from defense-forward infielders behind him, which makes his success highly dependent on the Yankees’ next big move.
Fenway Park has been almost as hitter-friendly as Coors Field lately, but strikeout pitchers like Crochet are less prone to these effects by keeping the ball out of play. When contact is made, however, Crochet’s success will be subject to the whims of a Red Sox defense that has been shaky at best in recent years. On the plus side, he’ll be working with pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who was credited with helping several pitchers make developmental progress in 2024.
With both fanbases clamoring for a bite at the starting pitcher market, the Yankees and Red Sox made big splashes. However, there is still work to be done for each team. Max Fried and Garrett Crochet will square off in the ultra-competitive AL East for at least the next two seasons, and only time will tell which team came out ahead at these Winter Meetings.