Don’t think less of a pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) based on one start

By Patrick Green | Oct 8, 2014

Each team plays 162 games in a single season (shocker!), but none of those matter once you reach the postseason. Technically speaking, that is correct.

You enter the postseason with a clean slate, and are tasked with winning one, three, or four games depending on what stage of the playoffs you have made it to. Really, regular season games don’t matter at that juncture; however, the sole reason that you’ve reached that juncture is because of your team’s regular season performance.

More from MLB News

This should be common sense, yet you would be surprised at just how many people disregard regular season play entirely. It is an odd exercise because, like I said, a team’s record in the regular season is the reason a team’s season persists.

The regular season is also a pretty enormous sample size in juxtapose to the postseason, as a player’s actual talent plays much better over the course of 162 games rather than 1-20 games.

Again, I know for some of you these basic principles are very much encoded in your brain at this point but for others the prior paragraphs might be somewhat enlightening. Just because a person’s anxiety-levels should be higher and every game is broadcast does not mean you should make unsubstantiated conclusions about a player’s talent-level or their season altogether.

Every player will endure slumps, strings of anomalies, or just a single anomaly (i.e. one bad game) in both the regular season and the postseason. And yes, I mean “everybody;” the best of the best included. In the case of Clayton Kershaw, who is certainly among the the best of the best, that anomaly came in a single inning.

Oct 7, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw reacts in the 7th inning during game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

It was an inning worth repressing for Kershaw and the Dodgers faithful, as the 2014 National League MVP (might be getting a little ahead of myself) surrendered six earned runs in the 7th inning of Game One of the NLDS. The 7th inning, which Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan broke down perfectly, likely ranks among the southpaw’s worst in his phenomenal, young career.

But guess what? It was only one inning! One freakin’ inning that, yes, was bad, but despite its “high-leverage” implications does not take away from the fact that Kershaw has, indeed, been the best player on the planet, sans Mike Trout, in 2014.

I know it is hard to formulate facts around a subjective opinion, but Clayton Kershaw is so good that it is a borderline fact that he is the best pitcher in baseball, is it not?

Adam Wainwright, too, struggled in that game, allowing six earned runs in four and 1/3 innings of work. Wei-Yin Chen pitched very poorly (five earned runs, three and 2/3 innings) in Game Two of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers.

Yordano Ventura got smoked in his relief appearance in the American League Wild Card Game. All of these guys are tremendous pitchers, and should not be judged on what they did in a single game. With that said, the same goes for a pitcher who does well.

If, historically, their track record suggests they are a mediocre pitcher, well, more than likely they will be a mediocre pitcher in subsequent appearances.

The same principle can be applied to hitters, too, but the masses do not overreact nearly as much when a hitter has a bad game compared to a pitcher, hence why that was not the focus of this article.

Over the next few weeks you will likely hear drivel from pundits who overstate the importance of a pitcher’s last few outing(s); their perception clouded by the recency effect. My advice: do not buy into it. Players will have bad games in what is viewed as a bigger-stage, but, really, it does not debase the value that a player contributed over the entire season; most of which came in the regular one.

Addendum:

Clayton Kershaw’s second 7th-inning blowup occurred after this post was written, though, it does not change a thing. For one, he did, actually, earn a quality start — however arbitrary that stat may be — with his six innings of three-earned run baseball. Secondly, one bad start (Game One) and one mediocre start (Game Four) does not change the fact he was a 7.2 fWAR player in the regular season.