Left-hander Danny Duffy led the Royals to the World Series
Danny Duffy allowed two earned runs in three innings of work in a blowout Game One loss in the long-anticipated World Series return to Kansas City. Obviously, he was not at his best, but what did you seriously expect from a guy who had not pitched in almost twenty days? For those unaware, Duffy, one of the Kansas City Royals’ best pitchers, had not pitched since Game One of the ALDS against the offensive-heavy Los Angeles Angels coming into baseball’s championship.
Now, it would be unfair of me to neglect mentioning the health-issues surrounding Duffy; however, he insisted he was fine. I am not a trainer on the Royals, so I do not know nor do I claim to know how healthy Danny Duffy may or may not have been. With that said, if Kansas City was confident that Duffy was, in fact, healthy then that is a travesty. Because, truthfully, the Royals would not be in the playoffs, let alone in the World Series, without the southpaw.
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Yes, you heard that right. The Kansas City Royals would not be where they are today without Duffy, and it should not be hard to see why. On the season, the 25-year-old produced a stellar 2.53 ERA and decent 3.83 FIP in 149 1/3 innings pitched. He didn’t strike a lot of guys out (6.81 K/9), he didn’t yield a large number of ground balls (35.8 GB%) and he allowed a ton of free passes (3.19 BB/9), yet he was very successful.
How, one might ponder, did Duffy prosper with such horrendous peripherals? Well, good fortune by way of a .239 BABIP certainly did not hurt, but that does not offer us a full explanation. What really made Duffy successful was his 18.1 line-drive percentage, which was the ninth-lowest in baseball among pitchers who had logged at least 140 innings in 2014, along with his 14.1 infield fly ball percentage which was the third-best in baseball among pitchers who had logged, again, at least 140 innings in 2014.
I will concede that the Royals’ sensational defense likely had an influence on Duffy’s amazingly-low line drive rate, but his ability to generate weak contact (infield fly balls) at such a high-rate make Duffy’s poor peripherals somewhat understandable in context with his amazing 2014 season.
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Seeing as how we have gotten acclimated to the intricacies of 25-year-old’s success, it is now time to look at the numbers and try to project where the Royals would have been without Duffy. For this exercise we will look at RA-9 WAR, as the overall value of a pitcher can only be gauged by runs he allowed however influenced by luck and outside factors it may be.
Okay. So, Duffy produced a 3.7 RA-9 WAR throughout the ’14 season, which ranked 30th in MLB among starting pitchers. Now, that does not seem that impressive right off the bat, but considering he pitched about 50 less innings than his competition – it is. And, really, where he stacks up against other pitchers does not matter much because Duffy provided the Royals with about four extra wins on the season.
The Royals narrowly made the playoffs, finishing one game ahead of the second Wild Card team, the Oakland Athletics, and two games ahead of the Seattle Mariners – who just missed October baseball. Thus, it is very plausible to make the argument the Royals would not have even made the playoffs even with a decent starter in Duffy’s absence. Thus, the Royals would not be in the World Series had it not been for Danny Duffy.