Analyzing the Marco Estrada and Adam Lind swap

If you have not heard yet, the Toronto Blue Jays swapped power-hitting first baseman Adam Lind in exchange for the Milwaukee Brewers’ Marco Estrada in what was arguably the first significant move of the 2014 Major League Baseball offseason early Saturday. (If you need caught up on the deal, we detailed it earlier here at Call to the Pen).

Lind, when healthy, has been a terrific offensive commodity over the course of the last two seasons; however, the keyword is “when,” as he only played in 93 games in the 2014 season.

Estrada, on the other hand, struggled mightily after a solid 2013 campaign when he posted a decent 3.87 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 128 innings of work. The right-handed pitcher’s 2014 season, though, was an utter disaster, seeing as how he posted an abysmal 4.36 ERA and 4.88 FIP in 150 2/3 innings pitched between the bullpen and rotation.

More from MLB News

So, at first glance it seems evident that the Brewers are the predestined winners of this trade. Yet I have and always will believe in the adage “things aren’t always what they seem.” The process of just simply formulating opinions based on no prior evidence is futile, and accomplishes nothing but leading us in the wrong direction. Thus, I feel an obligation to look at this deal from more than one angle, and attempt to understand the rationale for both organizations behind this swap.

From a roster configuration perspective, this move makes sense for both sides.

Toronto’s starters compiled the ninth-worst ERA in baseball last season with a combined 3.96 ERA and their bullpen composed the sixth-worst ERA in baseball last with a 4.09 ERA. It’s no secret the Jays needed pitching help last year, and looking ahead to 2015 they will need it, too. Whether Estrada gets placed in the bullpen or the rotation is still a mystery, but with a seemingly complete yet mediocre rotation that consists of Mark Buherle, Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, and J.A. Happ, it is likely he will end up in the ‘pen.

Based off Estrada’s numbers last season, a move to the bullpen seems perfectly reasonable. I will say, however, that the Marco Estrada we witnessed last year probably won’t be the one we will see going forward.

For one, Estrada’s big-league numbers, sans ’14, are fairly impressive. Below are the 31-year-old’s statistics the previous three seasons.

2011 (92 2/3 IP): 4.08 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 3.03 K/BB, 0.8 fWAR
2012 (138 1/3 IP): 3.64 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 4.93 K/BB, 3.2 fWAR
2013 (128 IP): 3.87 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.07 K/BB, 1.6 fWAR

Career numbers are usually a better barometer of a player’s future performance opposed to a single season. This is because one season in juxtaposition to an entire career is a small sample size, and, truthfully, one season is typically heavily influenced by luck (factors out of one’s control). In 2014, this was obviously the case for Estrada, as he yielded an unsustainable 1.73 HR/9 ratio, which is .32 points above his career HR/9 and .87 points above the MLB average in ’14. Nothing in his past indicates that he will be crippled with such a high home run frequency going forward; therefore, it is safe to assert he will subsequently allow less runs to score via the long ball next year.

Before we move on to why Lind made sense for Milwaukee, I want everyone to know that Estrada’s stuff does not play differently out of the bullpen than the rotation. He owns a career 4.20 ERA as a starter and 4.29 ERA as a reliever in case any of you had concerns regarding the splits.

Okay. The Brewers need a first baseman for 2015, and though Lind’s pretty horrible defensively, they are banking on his offense to negate the value lost on defense. It is not necessarily an erroneous hope because if the left-handed slugger is able to maintain a wRC+ around 141 in ’15 then, well, he will be worth something to the Brew Crew. But Steamer Projections does forecast Lind to only compile a 118 wRC+ in 2015 — not bad whatsoever but may forge him into a sub-1 fWAR player. In that case, the Jays have a fighting chance to win this trade.

More from Call to the Pen

It is also worth mentioning the Blue Jays have recently added Justin Smoak, a once highly-touted prospect, to their roster. He has offensive potential and moving out of SAFECO Field into Rogers Centre will be nothing but beneficial. At this juncture, he is their projected designated hitter in Lind’s absence and Toronto has resurrected careers in the past (e.g. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion), so, who knows, maybe they can do it again.

Despite Estrada’s potential, the Brewers really had no room for him unless they wanted to keep him in the bullpen. They seized an opportunity to improve an area of clear uncertainty with a guy they could not maximize the potential of.

Milwaukee appears to be the early winner because of the fact Toronto will probably stick Estrada in the bullpen to begin the year at least. This, like I said, will impede his full potential, which we discussed above, to surface. Lind, though, is set to make $7.5 million next season, whereas Estrada is set to make $3.32 million in 2015. The Blue Jays saving roughly $4 million dollars in this deal makes this very close, and if they spend it wisely (i.e. signing a quality outfielder) then this could go a long way towards their prosperity next year.

Overall, it looks like a move that benefits, in a sense, both parties. Ultimately, however, it will come down to how Estrada and Lind play going forward, and that is a ways a way from developing.

Home/MLB News