The Atlanta Braves do not need to add Nick Markakis
I was hanging out on Twitter Tuesday night and came across this Tweet from the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly regarding the Atlanta Braves’ interest in outfielder Nick Markakis.
With Fredi Gonzalez coming to Baltimore to meet Markakis, you have to think Braves are biggest suitor for Markakis right now -- besides Os.
— Dan Connolly (@danconnolly2016) December 3, 2014
Markakis is a pretty good player, but he is a wee bit overrated. Over the last three seasons (2012 through 2014), he has compiled the 66th-best fWAR at 4.0 among outfielders. Right above him is Drew Stubbs (4.2 fWAR) and right below him is Justin Ruggiano (3.9 fWAR). Now, Stubbs and Ruggiano are not bad players, but they are not players who will receive $30 to 50 million on the open market on a three-to-five year deal; like the former O’s outfielder almost certainly will at some point this offseason. Yet, there is a strong case to be made that Stubbs was actually the better player over the past three seasons — at least based on fWAR.
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Defensive metrics, sans last season, have been “unkind” to Markakis. When I say that what I am really saying is Orioles fans view the left-handed hitter as a Gold Glove right fielder while somewhat objective defensive metrics detest that notion. Personally, I believe he is not as bad on defense as the metrics suggest, but I do think there are people who are watching him through clouded Orioles-colored glasses and refuse to see the reality conspicuously in front of them: Nick Markakis is not a great defensive player.
That statement, however, is debatable and depends entirely on your opinion of his defense. There is nothing concrete that can prove — not yet at least — how good or bad he really is with the glove. What can be proven is this: spanning from 2012 to 2014 he was the 65th-best offensive qualified outfielder in baseball according to the stat wRC+. Markakis’ 104 wRC+ in that time period is worse than Will Venable‘s 106 wRC+ in the same window and only a point better than Chris Denorfia‘s 103 wRC+ the prior three seasons. wRC+ is the absolute best stat to gauge offensive production in a given year, but it is not universally known.
In case one is not familiar with the stat wRC+ we will do the same exercise with the much simpler and explainable stat OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). In the last three seasons of play, Markakis’ .739 OPS ranks 68th among 90 qualifying outfielders. Simply put, he is a decent bat at best.
Overall, we have ourselves an at best average — and that is being generous — player. To further emphasize that claim, Steamer Projections forecasts him producing a .716 OPS, 103 wRC+, and 1.3 fWAR in 2015. The guy is 31 years old and is past his “prime years,” which suggests he probably will decline each season from here on out. That is not a guarantee whatsoever but that tends to happen when players get old.
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Some team likely will give Markakis a three or four-year deal at an average annual value north of $10 million this winter. Based on the facts laid out above, it is not absurd to assert this team will be overpaying for his services. For a competitive team with money it is a signing that can be understood to some extent; for the Atlanta Braves, it is a signing that cannot be understood.
The Braves are seemingly in transition mode after they managed to only win 79 games last season and understandably so. They fired general manager Frank Wren and brought in John Hart to takeover as President of Baseball Operations. Hart, knowing his new team’s window had probably closed, traded arguably the Braves’ best player in Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins earlier in the offseason, exemplifying his team’s commitment to the future and not solely next season.
The Braves have the fourth-worst projected fWAR — based on the team’s current depth chart — on Fangraphs right now ahead of only the Houston Astros, San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies. There are also rumors suggesting Justin Upton and Evan Gattis may be the next players out of town.
All of the above tells us something about the Braves: they are not likely to be competitive for the next couple of years. So why, I ask, would Atlanta have interest in bringing an overrated player when the near future is bleak for the franchise? If they are to give him, say, a four-year deal he’ll be age 33 or 34 when the Braves have a realistic shot of being competitive. The Braves will be overpaying him much more in the final two years of the contract if Markakis follows the traditional aging curve and performs worse with age in years the team is supposed to be vying for a championship. Does that make sense? Of course it doesn’t.
Signing Markakis does not really make sense unless they get him at a reasonable price, the team has better insight on his defensive value than the public, or they are going for it in ’15. The second one is likely the only one with truth behind it but it is doubtful that his defense is that much better than what the metrics show. So, in conclusion, it would be dubious to see the Braves signing Markakis on a multi-year deal; he is not worth it considering the Braves current position.