$40 million for Andrew Miller seems like a lot

When Andrew Miller pitched to the tune of a 1.35 ERA down the stretch of the Baltimore Orioles’ conquest of the American League East, it was all but determined he would land a substantial contract on the free agent market. The fact he is a left-handed pitcher who held right-handed hitters to a .208 wOBA in ’14 — a very impressive number considering traditionally left-handed relievers often struggle against right-handed hitters — made him especially desirable to teams. The southpaw was not phased by which side of the plate you batted from last season, and that in itself is a very coveted commodity. It is no surprise that Miller is commanding interest, but this Tweet from Jon Heyman makes me wonder if teams are overvaluing the man with a nasty fastball/slider combination.

The term “mega deal” is a bit generic, but that is what happens when one is limited to just 140 characters. So, here are two paragraphs from Heyman’s article on CBS Sports that delve into the specifics of what one should expect Miller to get within the week.

"“Miller is all but assured of a four-year deal that’s expected to pay him close to $40 million following a brilliant season for both Boston and Baltimore, and the Dodgers and Yankees are just the sort of teams that may be able to afford a set-up man with close to a $10 million annual salary.It appears he will have a deal within a day or two.”"

Miller posted a 2.3 fWAR last season between the Red Sox and Orioles. If one anticipates that he can sustain that production ’15 and beyond then he is worth the money considering a win on the market is estimated to be worth $6-7 million. Actually, that is not correct because he would be worth more than the approximate $10 million in average annual value he is probably going to receive. That expectation, however, is optimistic; perhaps too much so.

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Steamer Projections, an objective projection system based on prior success and other variables, forecasts Miller to produce a 0.8 fWAR in 2015. Since a win is estimated to be worth $6-7 million, lets take a neutral position and say a win is worth $6.5 million — for the purpose of this exercise at least. Multiply the projected 0.8 fWAR times $6.5 million and Miller will be worth a total of $5.2 million in 2015; a far cry from the north of $10 million in average annual value he is inevitably going to get.

This, though, is just one year of his contract. Miller is 29 at the moment and as he gets older his velocity will likely decline, making him a less effective pitcher with each season passing unless he manages to pull an improbable Bartolo Colon out of his hat. Thus, it is not totally off-base to assert that 2015 will be his best season. If a 0.8 fWAR is the best the signing team is going to see from the pitcher then a four-year, $40 million contract is most definitely a sizable overpay.

With that said, those projections are not right a lot — something that is bound to happen when a human being has numerous different factors (defense, luck, etc.) effecting his performance and unforeseeable happenings (injuries, adjustments, etc.) occurring — and I think those estimates may be a bit conservative, anyway.

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But being projected to be worth $5.2 million and getting paid over $10 million is a concerning gap that should caution one about entering this “bidding war” for his services. After all, he is a reliever and they do not contribute nearly as much value as position players or starters because they do not play nearly as much. Miller probably will only give you close to 65 innings per year, pending he stays healthy. Really, unless he posts consistent numbers close to what he did in ’14 he will not be worth the dough.

And why should we believe that he will continue to be as good going forward? His BABIP last season was an unsustainable .263 that will likely deviate towards his career .322 BABIP, as regression to the mean is the probable outcome here. A higher BABIP means more balls in play; more balls in play means more runners on base; more runners on base mean more runs will score; and more runs scoring means Miller won’t be as valuable.

Plus, the hype about his ability to get both right-handed and left-handed hitters out is a bit overstated. Over his career right-handed hitters have slugged .418 against him compared to a paltry .359 slugging percentage lefty hitters have produced. 2014 seems like an aberration in terms of his non-existent splits.

Actually, scratch that. 2014 seems like an aberration across the board. He has always been a good pitcher, but one deserving $40 million? Certainly not. Relievers are volatile; so much so I advise every team to stray away from offering lavish multi-year contract to them. With the right guy, however, a big contract is justified. Andrew Miller is not that guy.