Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller: Why neither should close

With the news that Andrew Miller has signed a four-year, $36 million deal with the New York Yankees, a bullpen beast might have been born.

Dellin Betances, the physically humongous and borderline untouchable setup man responsible for a 3.2 WAR in 2014, is already under club control for multiple years. He and Miller instantly become one of the best bullpen duos in baseball.

The common question is this; if David Robertson walks out the door, who will close? The right-handed Betances or the southpaw Miller? The best answer is neither. This is an unconventional response, certainly, but each weapon is too versatile to be exclusively placed in a ninth inning role.

A chance of Robertson returning to the Bronx remains, but his asking price might end up being too high. With $9 million annually already dedicated to Miller, giving a similar amount of cash to Robertson probably isn’t in the Yankees’ best interest. If he does end up leaving, a poor man’s Robertson would be the ideal closer in New York.

More on the Yankees’ potential non-Robertson closer candidates a bit later. For now, here’s the case for Betances and Miller having diverse roles that aren’t confined by a predetermined inning.

In 2014, Betances piled up 135 strikeouts and rocked a 0.78 WHIP. In his splits, courtesy of FanGraphs, we see that lefties hit .161 against him and righties hit .133. Lefties slugged at a .200 clip against him and righties did so at .250. The young right-hander has no preferred matchup advantages or avoided matchup problems. No matter who he faces, he dominates. His upper-90s heater and disgusting breaking ball show no mercy. One stat, however, is most telling of Betances. He totaled 90 innings pitched in 2014. That’s an astounding number. Why place an 80-to-90 inning reliever in the closer role? His stamina and value scream for wider responsibility.

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Miller struck out 103 batters and only issued 17 walks in 2014. He also posted equally dominant splits as his new partner. Lefties only hit .161 against him and righties hit .142. His opposing slugging percentage numbers were .261 against lefties and .202 against righties. Much like Betances, Miller has essentially no preferences or shortcomings matchup-wise. Even with a slight edge against righties, he dominates both sides. He’s not a left-handed specialist or limited weapon; Miller can be used to end a stressful sixth, pitch a clean seventh or eat both an eighth and ninth in the same game.

If one of these monsters is chosen as the closer, the other will be the setup man. That leaves the eighth and ninth innings covered. With an injury-plagued starting rotation headlined by C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka though, plus limited options in middle relief, how exactly are the Yankees going to consistently hand Betances and Miller leads? Throw in an ineffective, short-handed offense and maintaining leads through seven frames becomes a serious issue.

With these problems accounted for, the prevailing circumstance will likely be New York’s best bullpen options sitting in silence as multiple games slip away. This failure will be due to a silly concept that dominant relievers can only be used in the eighth inning and beyond.

Inside this idea lives a question. What if the closer title were overrated? What if Brian Kenny, an MLB Network host who completely opposes the closer role, has been right all along? His stance is simple: use your best reliever available in the most pressing situation.

Sprawling from the fifth inning on, with roughly three signed or revamped middle relievers placed in the mix for the purposes of surviving a 162-game marathon, Betances and Miller would be a duo representative of an old school thought. With two consecutive seasons of missing the playoffs, this strategy would give New York a unique edge capable of ending the streak that has left fans restless.

In 1973 and 1974, Mike Marshall was an extreme example of this concept. In 1973, he saved 31 games in 179 innings of work. The next year, he saved 21 contests in 208 1/3 innings. This is absurd by modern standards, but here’s the point; Marshall was stretched out and regularly used in the most important circumstances regardless of inning. He started games, pitched in middle relief and closed games. Betances or Miller shouldn’t top more than 90 frames apiece, but New York should use Marshall and the old school closers as a template for its new duo.

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For the purposes of having a closer to appease skeptics, Rafael Soriano, Sergio Romo, Pat Neshek, Jason Motte, Jason Grilli, Luke Gregerson and others are available. None of these candidates will demand Robertson money. And come 2015, it’s possible that any of these candidates come close to matching Robertson’s numbers with his prospective new team.

Are any of these options dominant? No. Are any of them fear-inducing closers? Probably not. But they’re all serviceable enough to regularly record three outs and maintain a ninth inning lead. That lead, with questionable starting pitchers and innately average middle relievers, will only be safe because Betances and Miller were used early enough to save the game.

This idea probably won’t be adopted in New York. It’s most useful in late-season push and playoff circumstances. Over the season long grind, fixed roles might have a place. Within that point is the partial genius of this idea; Betances and Miller would have defined roles, they just wouldn’t be predetermined and limited by a specific inning. Like their pitching abilities, their roles would be diverse and adaptable.

There’s a case to be made for New York winning more games, avoiding more blown leads and preventing middle relief disaster with higher regularity by implementing this strategy. Brian Kenny is a smart guy. Old schools managers were smart too. The lesson to be had is don’t let a modern concept trump a timelessly brilliant idea.

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