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Dee Gordon’s offensive production will likely drop in 2015

By Patrick Green

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After one full season and three partials seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, middle infielder Dee Gordon will be heading to the Miami Marlins in a deal that involves touted pitching prospect Andrew Heaney. Gordon was an All-Star for the first time in 2014, as he amassed an above-average 101 wRC+ and swiped an MLB leading 64 bases that season. He was a tad below-average on the defense side of things with a -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) and -3.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating), but what does one expect from a guy who had only played three innings at second base before becoming the Dodgers’ regular second basemen in 2014? His super-human speed is where he accrues most of his value from and luckily there is no indication the 26-year-old is in danger of losing his foot speed any time soon. What he may lose going forward, however, is his productive offensive output.

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The left-handed hitter posted a .346 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last season which is something that he may not be able to continue to do going forward. He owns a career .326 BABIP and the MLB average BABIP last year was .299. It is not far-fetched to assume that the .346 BABIP Gordon supplied in ’14 was merely an aberration; thus from here on out the safe bet is that he will put balls in play at an average closer to his career norm and the MLB norm. This obviously means that he will likely get less hits on the balls he puts in play and that means he will be a less productive offensive player.

Now, this is not always the case for every guy and some do make real adjustments that enables them to sustain success in the future despite a blip in BABIP. But Gordon did not make any noticeable adjustments in 2014 in juxtaposition to previous season’s play. If one has a hard time believing me, check out his batted ball profile the last three seasons.

(Note: these acronyms — LD%, GB%,  FB%, and IFFB% — that you see below stand for the following in order from left to right: line drive percentage, ground ball percentage, fly ball percentage, and infield fly ball percentage.) 

  • 2012 (330 PA): 20.5 LD%, 58.9 GB%, 20.5 FB%, 13.3 IFFB%
  • 2013 (94 PA): 20.6 LD%, 49.2 GB%, 30.2 FB%, 21.1 IFFB%
  • 2014 (609 PA): 21.3 LD%, 59.7 GB%, 19.1 FB%, 8.0 IFFB%
  • MLB Average in 2014: 20.8 LD%, 44.8 GB%, 34.4 FB%, 9.6 IFFB%

Before we discuss the above please note the following: Fangraphs calculates line drives produce 1.26 runs per out, whereas fly balls produce 0.13 runs per out and ground balls 0.05 runs per out.

Gordon’s ground ball percentage soared to a career-high last season in a season in which he was at his best with the bat. His fly ball percentage also fell to a career-low last season, but on the bright side his line drive rate was the best it has been in three years and his infield fly ball percentage decreased dramatically. There is nothing about his batted ball profile that screams that he was a different hitter last year, and that is sort of concerning when one considers that his walk rate actually decreased in ’14 and his strikeout rate stayed pretty much stagnant.

The change, or lack thereof, in Gordon’s batted ball profile leads me to believe that his unsustainable BABIP was the reason for his average offense in 2014, not an adjustment that would indicate future offensive success was probable. Even so, he has value because of his legs and there is no denying that. But if I am the Miami Marlins I would be cautious with my offensive expectations for Gordon because he will likely regress to the below-average bat he was prior to the 2014 season.

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