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B.J. Upton: Major League Baseball’s lost sibling

By Tyler Birss

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B.J. Upton used to be a phenomenal prospect. The former number two overall pick in the 2002 draft grew into a talented MLB player with a rare combination of lightning speed and effortless power. As his younger brother, Justin Upton, has developed into the elite slugger and prized commodity recently landed by the San Diego Padres, B.J. has faded away.

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He’s a fascinating rise-and-fall case of an athlete who has perplexed everyone throughout his career. After parts of eight years with the Tampa Bay Rays, the Atlanta Braves signed B.J. to a five-year, $75.25 million contract. The deal resulted in doubt and confusion, but Upton was once a player who could bat .300, belt 20 or more home runs and swipe upward of 40 bags. With this dynamic approach, he had a WAR between 3.8 and 4.8 during four of his five years from 2007 to 2011.

Looking at his entire body of work is the equivalent of attempting to solve an incalculable trigonometric equation. His highest home run total was in 2012 for Tampa Bay when he hit 28 shots and slugged .454. B.J. also crushed 24 homers and slugged .508 in 2007. His strongest speed display was in 2008 when he stole 44 bags. B.J. also walked 97 times and had a .383 on-base percentage that year. His worst campaign was his debut season for Atlanta in 2013. In 126 games, he batted .184 and slugged .289. He struck out 151 times in 391 at-bats. The next year, B.J. hit .208 with 35 RBIs in 141 games. He managed to accumulate just 108 hits and 173 strikeouts.

These earlier numbers tell the story of an All-Star talent with every physical tool imaginable. The recent statistics reveal the tale of a fringe ability player with more detriments than positives. Through the first two years of his deal, Atlanta is paying for the dream of B.J. and receiving the ultimate nightmare. This has spawned reports of Atlanta trying to package his horrid deal with an appealing hitter like Evan Gattis. No team will eat all that money, but B.J. must still have his talent somewhere trapped within his thin frame.

Looking at his entire body of work is the equivalent of attempting to solve an incalculable trigonometric equation.

B.J. attempted to fix his swing prior to the 2014 season. Flaws were thought to be offsetting his lower body and causing prevalent strikeouts. His father, Manny Upton, told B.J. to more efficiently use his legs when swinging. The effort may have been noble, but 2014’s results proved any changes failed to provide a meaningful impact. With his talent arrested and changes lacking substance, how can the 30-year-old B.J. rediscover himself as an important contributor?

2008 is the season for him to ponder. That’s when he walked the aforementioned 97 times. He struck out on 134 instances, which may seem inefficient, but that was his lowest total in any full MLB campaign. He had the highest WAR of his career at 4.8 despite only belting nine big flies. Yes, for a full season, B.J. had a career-low in strikeouts, a career-low in home runs and a career-high in walks. Is there a correlation there? Of course there is. He was largely a singles and doubles hitter who reached base at an All-Star level and stole bases with regularity. FanGraphs’ reports cited earlier also show us that 2008 was the strongest defensive showing for B.J.

That was the year when B.J. fulfilled his potential. He did so by shortening his swing, refraining from trying to slug left field home runs every at-bat and using his blessed amount of speed to a huge advantage. From 2009 and beyond, B.J. hasn’t walked anymore. He chases pitches out of the zone. His swing has become overly long and his lack of offensive confidence has severely harmed his defense. The verdict? No baseball whisperer can fix this maddening case, but it seems that B.J. has complicated his approach and forgotten what made him successful earlier in his career.

Unless a suitor takes on part of his contract and hopes to bank on his natural talent, B.J. has three years left in a Braves uniform. He hasn’t reached the age when ultimate deterioration should set in. He’s still an effective baserunner with enough range to play Gold Glove center field defense. As Justin heads to San Diego and Atlanta enters a relative rebuild, B.J. and his contract remain. So does his talent. It’s just a matter of whether or not the former phenom can find it.

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