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Blue Jays Should Have Looked at Brandon Beachy

By Jordan Wevers

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It’s an abnormal thing to see a starting pitcher with a lifetime 3.23 ERA and a FIP of only 3.34 who has not yet turned 30-years old be unemployed by MLB in January. Such was the case for Brandon Beachy, but there is a caveat. The 28-year old righty has had two Tommy John surgeries already in his career.

With nothing confirmed as of yet, it’s probably safe to say the Toronto Blue Jays are not the mystery team working something out with Beachy. Toronto instead has recently been linked to Jonathan Papelbon and other rumors.

It’s too late now, but the Blue Jays should have presented Beachy with an low risk/high reward offer to help shore up their bullpen in the short term, possibly even their rotation a year or two from now. He’s more damaged goods than Papelbon, but his age proves he could still have some bright years ahead of him — and for a fraction of Papelbon’s $13 million 2015 salary and the vesting option of the same amount in 2016.

The Tommy John track record certainly did not stop the Kansas City Royals from signing Beachy’s former rotation mate while with the Atlanta Braves, Kris Medlen. The Royals inked him to a two-year deal plus the option for a third with $8.5 million in guaranteed earnings back in December.

Medlen is a year older than Beachy and has also had ulnar collateral ligament surgery twice inside of the last five years. He went under the knife first in 2010, causing him to sit out all of 2011 before bursting back onto the scene in 2012. He then excelled as a full-time starter in 2013 before falling victim to a second UCL tear during spring training in 2014.

Why then, did it take Beachy so much longer to find work?

Beachy had his Tommy John surgeries in June of 2012 and then again in March of 2014. That’s a 21 month window, though he managed to throw 30 big league innings in between in 2013.

With Medlen, it was about a 44 month gap.  But since both pitchers went under the knife at relatively the same time for a second go-round last year, both will be projected to make their first big league appearances in 2015 at around the same time. Typical rehab time after a first Tommy John surgery is 12-14 months and 16-18 months after a second procedure.

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For as strong as Medlen’s 2012 and 2013 campaigns were, Beachy’s 2011 and 2012 seasons were none to scoff at. In ’11 he started 25 games and went 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA and an impressive 10.7 K/9. Then in ’12, Beachy was rolling along with the best ERA in the league for a starter at 2.00 through 13 GS when the pain crept up and took hold of his right elbow.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen would have been a perfect home for Beachy in 2015 and possibly beyond. GM Alex Anthopoulos has expressed a need all offseason right through Winter Meetings to improve a unit that ranked 25th across MLB with a 4.09 ERA in 2014.

As of now, skipper John Gibbons is not even sure who the closer will be. After the season prospect Aaron Sanchez had last year out of the pen, his name has been floated around a lot in discussions pertaining to what his role will/should be.

The Medlen contract is a smart one. It’s for a player who once had a very high ceiling, is still relatively young and could therefore still attain that ceiling. It’s incentive laden and back loaded. It’s a low risk deal with high reward potential. Exactly what the Jays should have been after this offseason for dynamic pitching depth.

Beachy should be ready to pitch sometime in May or June. The best way to handle a pitcher with a fragile but talented arm is to spread him out over fewer innings from the bullpen and not pitch him on back-to-back nights unless he’s confident he can be used in such a way.

Beachy could have been to the Blue Jays what former starters turned relievers Zach Britton will be to the Orioles or Andrew Miller will be to the Yankees. Suffice it to say, both of these fellow AL East competitors made their bullpens better (one by transitioning a starter, the other by signing a free agent, respectively) while the Jays have done nothing.

What Toronto has done was cut loose Casey Janssen, a pitcher who saved 81 games and compiled a 2.94 ERA for them over the last three seasons. Janssen has since found a home in Washington D.C. The Jays did acquire Marco Estrada in a December trade with the Brewers, but he’s been mostly a sporadic starter over the last three years and holds a career 4.23 ERA.

Beachy would have been a great candidate for the Jays to take a flier on. He has punch out stuff and is hungry for a chance to get his career back on track. Two Tommy John surgeries is not a good thing, but it’s neither a career death sentence.

Former San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson completed his second Tommy John surgery in April of 2012. While his post 2012 ERA of 3.77 is a bit off from his career mark of 3.30, he still recorded 25 holds for the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2013-14.

Most worth noting was Wilson’s change in velocity. Not because it had dropped off substantially, but rather because his fastball still regularly exceeds 90 mph. In 2007, it maxed out at 99.4, reached a low of 91.1 and sat on average at 95.2 mph. In 2014 after two UCL operations, it still maxed out at 96.4 mph, reached a minimum of 88.2 and was offered at 93.1 mph on average. The biggest difference has been a heavier reliance on his slider, but overall, his power has not subsided too greatly.

Even if Brandon Beachy  doesn’t pan out with his new club, the mystery team made an unorthodox move in signing him. The Blue Jays should take on that same kind of mentality to find potential diamonds in the rough. Toronto now owns the longest playoff drought in all of MLB. Thinking outside of the box just might get them back on top of the AL East.

Next: Nationals boost 'pen with Casey Janssen signing

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