Making Sense of Free Agent Barry Zito
Baseball is a game full of anomalies. Roger Maris‘ 1961 season. The never fully realized career of Charles Baum, or the “Matty of the Minors”. The response of Barry Zito after his at the time record breaking 2007 deal for a pitcher, would be another one. The more money he annually collected and the deeper he got into that contract, the less he seemed to impress. Now at 36, Zito is eyeing a comeback.
To regress is a natural part of aging — of being human. Zito always had a laid back attitude around his chosen profession. He entered the league in 2000 and was well known to his clubhouse mates for idiosyncrasies not akin to a ball player like playing the guitar, dying his hair blue, surfing, practicing yoga in the outfield during warm ups and meditating before starts. In 2011 he became a born again Christian. After the 2013 season, he was out of baseball.
Barry Zito was so bad in his time as a Giant, the clubs ability to stay relevant in the last seven years is a testament to their world-class management.
Zito’s Cy Young season in 2002 was a footnote in the Oakland Athletics’ record breaking campaign. He rattled off four straight wins during the A’s record tying 21-game win streak (modern era), ultimately culminating in a 23 win season with 182 strikeouts and a 2.75 ERA. He lost only five decisions and his .821 WPCT ranks inside the top 100 for starting pitchers all-time. All of this came in Zito’s age 24 season.
The greatest source of Zito’s early success was his masterful curveball. Dating back to FanGraphs tracking of pitcher’s pitches in 2007, opponents held a .204 batting average against his hook from that date until 2013. The 2013 season produced by far his worst results with that pitch, as the opposition slashed .260/.285/.427 off it. Batters struck out only 29.9 per cent of the time versus it, down from 33.5 per cent in 2009. Zito gave up 56 total bases having thrown the curve a total of 416 times. In 2009, he threw it 584 times but gave up only 22 total bases.
Never a power pitcher, Zito’s fastball rarely touched 93 mph in the big leagues. Dead arm should not have plagued him in his early 30’s. But what remains was at 35, Zito was the second highest paid pitcher on the San Francisco Giants’ staff behind Tim Lincecum, but its least valuable commodity by statistical measures. His -2.6 WAR ranked dead last amongst Giants starters and relievers. In addition, $20 million bought San Fran a 5.74 ERA, 4.92 FIP and five wins in 25 starts. By August, manager Bruce Bochy had seen enough and bounced him to a relief role. The $7 million buyout for 2014 was a no-brainer for the Giants’ front office.
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Long before his dreadful 2013 season, Zito’s demise was evident with the Giants. Even in 2009 when his curveball was working well for him, he still under-performed with a 4.03 ERA after leading the league in losses with 17 in 2008. Barry Zito was so bad in his time as a Giant, the clubs ability to stay relevant in the last seven years is a testament to their world-class management. Lesser clubs might have submitted to a re-build mode in the face of such a disastrous $126 million handout. Zito’s overall ERA in his time as a Giant was 4.62. He never once recorded a single season ERA lower than 4.00 in his time there, recorded only one winning season (2012) and his winning percentage was a dreadful .441, over 350 points lower than the year he won a Cy.
So why is Zito attempting a comeback? He can’t be that fiscally irresponsible to have pissed away over $137 million in career earnings. Moreover, who could possibly be interested in a soon-to-be 37-year old arm that sat out all of last year and essentially relies on a single pitch for results. So far, the Houston Astros think he could be a worthwhile project. And the Cleveland Indians.
Zito is a man, who for a short while, dominated AL West lineups. Anytime a player with a Cy Young announces a proposed comeback, the news will travel to at least one set of ears. I can’t be positive such a comeback has ever happened before. It’s odd that someone with such an award on his mantel even has to resort to a comeback. So to make sense of Zito is to accept that weird things can happen to a baseball player over their career. Unusual aspects of this great game are part of the reason fans stay intrigued and follow story lines.
Zito’s hopeful comeback is not bad for baseball. If a team picks him up, it will be a great plot line for the 2015 season. But when that potential team’s manager finds himself scratching his head after making a call to the bullpen to yank Zito, he should not try to make sense of it. He should just accept it.
Barry Zito’s name has a 4.02 lifetime ERA attached to it for a reason. 2002 was an anomalous year by a player on a team that also turned out to be full of surprises.