AL Wild Card: Ranking the contenders down the home stretch
The MLB playoff picture is pretty clear heading into the final week of the season. In reality, all of the NL playoff spots are locked up, from wild card on down. They’re simply jockeying for position. In the AL the Blue Jays and Royals are definitely in. It’s also likely that the Yankees and Rangers will be in as well.
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The last remaining piece of the puzzle is the second AL Wild Card. Heading into the final week of the season there are five teams vying for one wild card spot. So which team will end up on top?
What follows is my best guess as to who will take the second Wild Card ranked from least likely to most likely.
5. Baltimore Orioles (5.5 games back)
Yes, according to the numbers Baltimore still has a chance at a wild card spot. However, in order to get that spot they would have to leapfrog FOUR teams and overcome a 5.5 game deficit in just seven games.
The schedule is also working against the Orioles. They have by far the more difficult remaining schedule of any of these wild card teams. This week they play four games against the Blue Jays and three against the Yankees. They have losing records versus both of those teams this season.
Over their last thirty games Baltimore has been the second worst team out of this group (14-16). Baltimore is still hanging around, but they’re not going to get in.
4. Cleveland Indians (4.0 games back)
Coming into Sunday the Indians had won three games in a a row. It was starting to look like they might really have a chance. However, after losing to the Royals yesterday (thanks to five no-hit innings from Chris Young) they find themselves four games back in the wild card. While I still like this team, overcoming a four game deficit and three other teams in seven days is a lot to ask.
It’s hard not to like a team that will have Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco pitching three of their next seven games. They have four remaining with a team above them in the standings (Minnesota), and then three with the 75-80 Red Sox. However, Cleveland has struggled against Minnesota this season. They’re 6-9 against the Twins this year, and they also have a losing record against the Red Sox (1-2).
The Indians had a rough start to the season, and if May had been any better for them they might be in the playoffs. Part of that slow start stems from the fact that, for a time, they had a historically bad defense. Since then they’ve really been able to turn things around, and there’s a lot to like about Cleveland’s chances NEXT year.
3. Minnesota Twins (1.5 games back)
If you had to pick the most surprising team out of this group it is the Minnesota Twins. According to Baseball Prospectus they were picked to finish last in the division, and only had a 5.7% chance of making the playoffs. No one saw them competing for a playoff spot this season.
However, on June 1 the Twins were 30-19 and in first place in the AL Central.
Even after their hot start most people expected the Twins to come back to earth. On top of that, they lost their highest profile free agent signing Ervin Santana to an 80 game suspension for PED use. They have the 23rd best offense in baseball by wRC+, the 21st best pitching staff by FIP, and the 18th best defense by UZR. There’s not one part of the game that’s powering this run.
So what have they done right? A big part of their success is that they’re 47-33 against teams with a sub-.500 record. They’ve beat up on a lot of bad teams, but that’s what successful teams do. That’t not to mention the boost they received when they called up prospect Miguel Sano. In 72 games for the Twins Sano has hit .277/.393/.546 and accumulated an OPS+ of 153.
The Twins have been a great story this season, but the story will come to an end this week.
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2. Houston Astros (0 games back)
Currently the Houston Astros are in the lead for the final wild card spot. Unfortunately for Astros fans I don’t think it’s going to stay that way. Houston does have a favorable schedule over the next seven days. They start their week with three games against the Mariners, and then close the season against Arizona.
Everyone assumed that eventually the Astros were going to be good, but I’m not sure anyone expected it this season. However, the Astros have been good on both sides of the ball. They have the 6th best offense in MLB by wRC+ and the 6th best pitching staff based on ERA.
The usual suspects have powered the offense this season. Young stars Jose Altuve and George Springer have been very good. Highly touted off season signing Evan Gattis has been average offensively, but hey…he does have ten triples?! It still feels weird to type that. Add Carlos Correa to the mix who looks like he might be the best shortstop in baseball for years to come and you really have something.
The starting pitching has also been great. Dallas Keuchel has solidified himself as a number one starter. Lance McCullers has been surprisingly good. Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers came over at the trade deadline to shore up the starting rotation. The bullpen was revamped at the beginning of the season. What’s not to like here?
My major issue with the Astros is that they simply feel like a team trending in the wrong direction. On September 1 they led the AL West by three games. Of the five teams on this list they have been the worst over their last thirty games (13-17). They’ve been the worst over their last twenty (8-12). Yes, they have a workable schedule this week, but they also have one of the hottest teams in baseball nipping at their heels.
1. Los Angeles Angels (0.5 games back)
The Angels will pass the Astros this week. They’ve made up a lot of ground in the past ten games going 8-2, and they’re riding a five game winning streak. We know what can happen when a team catches fire heading into October, and the Angels feel like that kind of team right now.
They do have some difficult games ahead of them. They start their week with three games against the A’s (they’re 9-7 against them this season). However, the season ends with a four game set against a Texas Rangers team that will likely still have something to play for. The Rangers are a tough team to have to deal with, but the Angels are 10-5 against them this season.
At the end of the day I’m simply betting on the hottest team winning this race. I don’t think that’s a mind blowing conclusion. But hey, if you need another reason to pick the Angels in this race…it doesn’t hurt to have this guy.