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Jose Fernandez Among 10 “Most Likely” Pitchers to Need Tommy John Surgery in the Future

By Jacob Kornhauser

Sep 25, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
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A new study, breaking down a number of mechanical and medical factors, has ranked the top 10 pitchers most likely to tear their UCLs, thus requiring Tommy John surgery. The most notable player in the top 10 is 23-year-old Marlins phenom, Jose Fernandez.

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It’s worth noting that this isn’t a death sentence by any means. Based on the statistics (and this is way oversimplifying things), he has a 4-percent chance of tearing his UCL and requiring another Tommy John surgery. That is a significantly higher risk than most pitchers, but it’s obviously still relatively low.

Oct 1, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) reacts at the end of the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Fernandez, one of the top pitchers in the game, is at high risk for requiring another Tommy John surgery. Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports /

Still, these results have to worry Marlins ownership and fans. If he has another major elbow injury, his trade value will go down the drain. At this point, they have three years to trade the righty. Since he says he wants around $30 million annually, there’s no way Miami can afford him.

What they can afford even less is another injury to their ace, though. The results of this study suggest they may have to brace for that.

With his violent delivery and history of injury, it makes sense he’s among the most likely to require Tommy John surgery. Whether or not he actually needs another season-ending surgery remains to be seen. For his own sake and the Marlins’ sake, Fernandez better hope he can dodge the 4-percent chance doesn’t come into play.

For a more extensive look at the study mentioned, visit the link at the top of the story.

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