Washington Nationals: Has Bryce Harper Been Playing Injured?

Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper had a historically great season in 2015, leading him to his first ever MVP award. His numbers with the Nats this season have dropped off. What’s the cause behind his steep decline?

After Bryce Harper’s outstanding season with the Washington Nationals last year, many expected the young superstar to finally take off on his journey to being one of the best of all-time. During 2015, he hit .330/.460/.649 with 42 home runs and a 197 wRC+. I know, those numbers seem made up. He was that good. When he hit very similarly during April of 2016, many thought he was well on his way to yet another historic season. That turned out to not be the case for Harper.

Outside of March and April, Harper has not seen his ISO rise above .200, and his slugging percentage has only been over .400 during a single month this season. Not only is he struggling to get hits, he is also struggling to hit for power. Harper still gets on base at a good pace, mostly because of team’s tendencies to continue to walk Harper. Because his rapid and steep decline is so perplexing, many have dug deep into finding a reason for why Harper has struggled so much.

Rob Arthur of 538 suggests that Harper was slightly over-performing the norm on the balls he put in play during the 2015 season. Arthur also points out that Harper is greatly under-performing on those same balls in play this season, thus accounting for the large difference in production. Jeff Sullivan also made a similar argument at Fangraphs.

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While both Arthur and Sullivan make great points, backed up with very smart statistical analysis, maybe there is another reason for Harper’s rough 2016 campaign. Tom Verducci of SI.com says that Bryce Harper has been battling a shoulder injury for the past two months. A shoulder injury would certainly be part of an explanation for why Harper has struggled so much this season. Along with missing out on some of the luck he had last season, the injury could be a huge factor in his decreased power numbers this season.

Harper’s recent injury, a stiff neck, does cloud the waters a bit on whether the shoulder injury actually existed or not. The Washington Nationals have kept Harper out of the lineup for a few days because of that neck injury, which they say Harper sustained recently. Washington Nationals General Manager, Mike Rizzo, was asked about the injury. He denied that any shoulder injury ever existed.

Teams and players lie about injuries all the time, so it’s hard to tell whether Harper and company are being honest or not. Both the reports and Harper’s performance indicate that there is a deeper issue that the Nationals are not talking about. Harper is not headed to the disabled list, which is a good sign. Neither the possible shoulder injury nor the neck injury are serious enough to sit Harper down for an extended period of time; however, playing through a shoulder injury could do more harm than good.

Next: X-Factors for a Postseason Push

Bryce Harper has not performed the way the Washington Nationals expected him to this season. Perhaps injury and bad luck have played into that. Either way, the Nationals need Harper to fix his game before they enter the playoffs. They have been able to remain extremely competitive without his best performance, but will desperately require a player like him if they want to make a run at the World Series.

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