2012 MLB Season Preview: Kansas City Royals
By John Parent
2012 Outlook
The Royals are in a unique place in that this season will be defined much more by what strides they make as a club rather than how they finish in the standings. While the record is something that will be used to judge improvement by the general public, and you’d certainly like to see a step forward be made, I don’t think any kind of artificial target win total should define how this club performs. This is very clearly another season as a part of “The Process” and while they should be better, they likely won’t contend in 2012.
That doesn’t mean they won’t be exciting to watch, nor does it mean their AL Central rivals will be able to relax when they see Kansas City on their schedule; not anymore, anyway.
I’ve already spent a lot of time talking about the lineup and where improvement might come from, yet this club ranked fifth in the league in team OPS last year, behind only Boston, New York, Texas, and Detroit. You might not immediately think of the Royals when you think about the better and deeper lineups in the league, but you should. This lineup, with the exception of Escobar, can rake.
The issues that need the most attention are simply in the pitching staff. Kansas City lacks an ace, but they also lack a solid number two. Hochevar, while pitching first in the rotation, is a number three starter at best on most clubs. Chen and Sanchez are fours or fives.
There have been some optimistic views on Paulino in the fifth spot, given that he did pitch pretty well after coming over on a waiver claim from the Rockies last season. Upon deeper inspection, however, Paulino’s peripherals didn’t show the kind of change that would warrant such optimism. While his walk rate and ground ball rate were better than his time in Colorado, they weren’t out of line with his career numbers. Meanwhile, He pitched to a lower BABIP and a significantly lower home run-to-fly ball rate than at any point in his career. If anything, I’d expect Paulino to regress a bit in 2012.
Crow, who was drafted as a starter but earned an all-star selection last season as a reliever, has the potential to become a middle-of-the-rotation guy, but he’ll see a huge innings jump from his previous seasons. How well he adjusts to the workload will go a long way toward determining his success in his new role. Still, this collection of starters is much better equipped to keep their club in games than the ones the Royals started for the majority of last year. If they eat up a few more innings, the bullpen should also be improved, simply based on the extra rest they might get.
While Soria struggled last year, he remains an elite-level closer and one who could be on the move this July. There has been talk that Kansas City would look to trade Soria for a proven starter, allowing them to move a healthy Broxton into the closer’s role. Another option, and one I believe they should explore, would be in converting Soria into a starter and using him at or near the front of their rotation. It’s much easier (and cheaper) to find a quality closer than it is to find a quality starter, and Soria has the tools to make the switch.
The rest of the bullpen is full of power arms and electric stuff. Greg Holland turned in a remarkable rookie campaign in 2011 and seems on his way to being an elite-level set-up man. If left hander Jose Mijares can bounce back from a dismal 2011 season and provide a quality alternative to primary southpaw Tim Collins, and Collins can harness his walks a bit more, the Royals bullpen may have no weaknesses.
If all breaks right for Kansas City in 2012, this is a club that could get to 83 or so wins. In order to do that, they’ll have to get much better starting pitching than anyone expects them to and both the bullpen and the lineup must stay healthy. If the starters perform as expected, however, this Royals team will still be much improved, but wind up 76-84. The Royals are going to be a very good team in this division, but they are likely still a year away. Once it clicks for them, however, watch out.
John Parent is the Editorial Director for FanSided MLB. He can be reached at john.parent@fansided.com or via twitter @JohnJParent.
For a more in-depth look at the Royals, visit Kings of Kauffman.
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