Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum: Can they bounce back?
There was a period when Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were rotation monsters for the San Francisco Giants. Cain, a former All-Star game starter and one-time perfect game tosser, had an uncharacteristically poor 2013 season and an injury-ravaged 2014 campaign. Lincecum, a two-time Cy Young Award winner and two-time no-hitter throwing pitcher, has logged three underwhelming and borderline dismal seasons in a row.
In 2015, the Giants will be relying on each individual. Madison Bumgarner is a machine with his ace status cemented in stone. After the World Series legend, the rotation is dicey. Jake Peavy is becoming old and Tim Hudson is growing ancient in the world of pitchers. Even with a James Shields to San Francisco proposition being realistic, the Giants will need Cain to solidify a spot somewhere in the rotation. Lincecum can be tried there if necessary, but his potential in the bullpen might be more intriguing. 162 games require inning-eaters and consistent fixtures. Even if Cain and Lincecum never become elite again, can they at least contribute?
Let’s first examine Cain. In 2013, his streak of six consecutive seasons of 200 plus innings pitched was snapped. He boasted a 4.00 ERA and surrendered a career-high 23 home runs. His WHIP was its highest since 2008 and opponents hit him at the highest clip since 2009. FanGraphs, which will be used as the primary resource throughout this article, shows us that Cain’s fastball velocity has progressively dipped from roughly 93 mph to 91 mph over the years. That’s not notable enough to cause his drop in effectiveness. He’s never thrown a powerfully dominant fastball and doesn’t exactly rely on strikeouts. His reliance lies in location.
In 2014, his 2-7, 4.18 ERA season ended with elbow surgery after 15 starts. This year can be thrown away since it’s likely that health discomfort derailed his efforts. Regardless, going into 2015, we can safely say that Cain hasn’t been a quality pitcher since 2012. So how can he bounce back? If his elbow holds up, he’ll need his pinpoint fastball to return. 2013 reveals telling statistics that point to his fall from grace. He threw a heater just 48.8% of the time in 2013, a career-low. He threw his slider 28.2% of the time, far and away a career-high. Considering his average velocity of each pitch was 91.2 mph on the cheese and 86.5 mph on the slider, a low difference of speed between the two, it’s likely that Cain became predictable.
If it wasn’t his decreasing in velocity and non-pinpoint fastball, it was his overthrown and unusually relied on slider. A curveball and changeup were mixed in, but Cain’s 2015 showing will be partially determined by his fastball location. 91 mph is more than fast enough to hang in MLB. Three breaking pitches can be worked off the heater. Cain just can’t again throw his fastball under half the time and be dependent on a slider nearly 1/3 of the time like in 2013.
In his best seasons, Cain’s fastball was predominant and the three breaking pitches were thrown in almost equal amounts. No off-speed selection was thrown more than on 1/5 of occasions. That’s the key to Cain in 2015, increased fastball usage to location and equal dependance on each breaking ball, something possible given his extended rest and recovery time.
Now let’s turn to Lincecum. He’s a more fascinating case given his higher plateau to Cain and longer stay toward the bottom. Without diving into anything statistically based, the simple truth is that Lincecum stands 5-10 and weighs 170 pounds. His violently aggressive mechanics and thin frame aren’t designed for repeated seasons of 200 or more innings pitched. It’s quite possible that he maximized his talents and squeezed every ounce of greatness from his right arm from 2008 to 2011. These peak four years of excellence featured two Cy Young victories and strikeout totals ranging from 220 to 265.
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Over the last three years, the man comically referred to as “Big Time Timmy Jim” has had an ERA of 5.18, 4.37 and 4.74. He hasn’t reached 200 innings tossed in any of these years after doing so in four straight seasons prior. His WHIP has ranged from 1.32 to 1.47 and opponents have hit .248 or greater against him each year. Basically, he’s gone from alarmingly dominant to extremely hittable. Like with Cain, FanGraphs’ numbers on Lincecum are also revealing. His highest average fastball velocity of 94.2 mph was in 2007. In 2014, it was 89.6 mph. He’s gone from a hard-thrower to a relative soft-tosser.
But that’s not everything. Looking at his career pitch selections becomes somewhat hard to fathom. In 2007, he never registered a single slider. From 2008 to 2010, he threw it between 1.7% and 8.5% of the time. He threw it 21.7% of the time in 2014 and only logged heaters at a 46.7% clip, showing both a transformation and reason for his decline. As his fastball has dropped in velocity and frequency, his previously unused slider has become a staple. In the same token, his curveball has been left behind and grown rusty.
My commitment to Cain returning to decent form is based on his easy mechanics and repeatable delivery. With Lincecum’s epic fall in velocity and identity crisis concerning what off-speed pitches to utilize, his saving grace would be his physicality and arm motion. A lack of size and harsh throwing pattern leave little room to believe he can turn his career around as a starter. Yes, as a starter. My belief is that he should be converted into a full-time reliever in 2015. His $18 million salary will be a blow to the chin regardless, so why not put him in a position to succeed? It’s possible that his fastball could creep toward a 91 or 92 mph average, plus his aggressive delivery wouldn’t be nearly as problematic in relief.
Oddly enough, the Giants won the 2014 World Series with Cain and Lincecum combining for one playoff appearance. This was an anomaly in Bumgarner’s historic run of putting the entire team on his back, a facet not typically reserved for baseball. In 2015, Bumgarner’s excessive work this past year could reveal itself. Peavy and Hudson are elder statesmen as professional athletes and no potential free agent is a certain bet. Cain’s place in the rotation will hugely factor into how the Giants perform in 2015. Whether Lincecum’s placed alongside him or in the bullpen, his role will also have a forceful impact. They used to be world class, now they need to be dependable contributors.