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MLB Rumors: James Shields’ Patience Not a Virtue

By Jordan Wevers

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Heading into Winter Meetings last December, free agent pitcher James Shields was widely regarded as top five player available on the open market. For that reason, it would be egregious to think that no MLB club has since approached Shields or his agent with a respectable offer yet.

He still remains un-signed and his reluctance to enter serious negotiations with a team has probably cost him millions of dollars by now.

Here are the set of factors working against Shields in today’s free agency climate:

The Market

The Max Scherzer signing laid the groundwork for a number of future transactions. For starters, Scherzer got the long term deal because he is three years younger than Shields and, simply put, is the better pitcher of the two. He has a Cy Young, a higher career WPCT and a lower lifetime FIP and ERA.

But now that Scherzer has signed, teams who lost out on him and Jon Lester are probably more inclined to trade for starting pitching depth instead of sign a 33-year old workhorse to a bloated long term deal. Some of the more notable pitching names changing clubs via trades in the last 60 days include Yovani Gallardo, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello and Jeff Samardzija.

With Scherzer now in D.C., players like Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmermann could be moveable if the right offer comes along. This also has more appeal to MLB front offices than signing Shields does.

Shields made $13.5 million salary in 2014. He probably will not want to go lower than that in the first year of an impending contract. Strasburg is set to make only $7.4 M in 2015 and is under club control through 2016.

There’s no guarantee the Nationals are even open to moving a player from their starting rotation. In any case, many teams may prefer signing high upside players to short term, incentive laden deals instead of signing aging players with proven track records.

Such was the case for Shields’ former squad. The Kansas City Royals inked Kris Medlen back in December. Brandon Beachy is another low risk/high reward investment a team could still take on.

As ESPN’s Buster Olney reported, from here on out, the longer Shields remains un-signed, the less leverage he holds in any negotiations, as most teams have exhausted their payroll budgets by now.

Performance

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Shields was, in essence, auditioning for his future contract under a microscope last year during the Royals’ World Series run. He had a national following with high profile coverage. So when he played terribly and it became evident that Kansas City progressed through October due to overall team speed, strong defense and a staunch bullpen, Shields lost some credibility as the team’s ace. Even more so when America witnessed what the opposition’s Madison Bumgarner was capable of accomplishing.

Before going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in two World Series starts versus the San Francisco Giants, Shields logged a 5.63 ERA with only one win in three previous 2014 postseason starts.

Despite his nickname being “Big Game James,” he really does not live up to the reputation. There is no bigger spot to pitch in than the playoffs, and Shields is a career 3-6 in 11 starts with a very pedestrian 5.46 ERA.

If I were a GM looking to sign a big name pitcher to a long term deal, I would want the peace of mind knowing that guy will make my club better in the regular season and in the playoffs. No front office executive or manager wants a high profile signing to be a liability on their rotation in October.

Career Trajectory

Shields has been a workhorse and mainly led by example on every single rotation he has pitched in since entering the league full time in 2007 with the Tampa Bay Rays. From that year through 2014, he has consistently logged over 200 IP per season. That kind of wear and tear can add up over time and negatively affect a pitchers productivity down the line. It has before.

Roy Halladay is an interesting case study. He went from Cy Young form in 2010 at age 33, to being a largely irrelevant player in 2012. His ERA jumped over two full points and by 2013, Halladay acted on his contemplations by retiring. The man shouldered a lot of innings on that right arm throughout his pro baseball career. By the time he was 36, there was nothing left in it. The arm was dead. His body broke down on him. The 6.42 ERA he plummeted toward in 2013 was the catalyst for greener pastures.

Like Halladay, Shields is not a pitch-to-contact player. He’s a power pitcher, regularly relying on his fastball’s velocity and placement as an out pitch.

With little to no leverage left in negotiations, Shields’ representation will probably be placing more calls than they will be receiving in the coming weeks.

From the time he was 18 until he turned 24, Halladay had logged over 635 innings in his minor league career. Add 231 IP to that total at the MLB level before he even became a staple in the Blue Jays’ rotation in 2001 as a 24-year old. These numbers would effectively foreshadow Doc’s inability to be successful into his mid to late 30’s.

From age 24 to 32, Halladay tossed 1815.2 major league innings. Shields, in that same age range, has thrown 1910.1 innings. Before that, tack on an extra 554.1 innings from his minor league career.

Shields is entering his age 33 season with over 2,400 innings in his pro career. His FIP has risen every year since 2011, while his strikeout totals have consistently declined. If Shields is looking for a contract that is in the neighborhood of five years, GM’s should think twice about him being the same player he is at 33, compared to what he will be in a few years time.

Suffice it to say, James Shields can probably still be an effective short term option for most major league clubs looking for an inning-eater.  Embarking on a long term deal should not be in the cards for any organization, though.

With little to no leverage left in negotiations, Shields’ representation will probably be placing more calls than they will be receiving in the coming weeks. Spring training begins in only a month.

By today’s standards, Shields is an over-worked pitcher. Tip your cap to him for that kind of durability. He has earned every pay check admirably over the course of his playing days. However, his most productive days are behind him. And when it comes to big [playoff] games, James is yet to rise to the occasion.

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