2011 MLB Draft Re-visited: Cole, Fernandez or Gray?
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A year before, the 2010 MLB draft, simply put, was the year of Bryce Harper. It’s highly probable that no team slotted to select first overall that year would have passed on the young phenom from Las Vegas, NV. The Washington Nationals are that relentless senior citizen plugging a singular slot machine at the casino, purging dime after dime into its orifice knowing the huge jackpot payoff is inevitable.
2015 looks to be the Nats’ payoff season, a preview into what’s to come from the 22-year-old slugger. Under club control until 2019, management can now start to imagine what riches await their organization at the hands of Harper. A World Series? A possible Hall of Famer? If anything, a marketable player who will make them tons of money in tickets and merchandise sales.
But if 2010 was the year of Harper, the year after’s MLB draft was the year of the pitcher. Three clubs drafted them in the first round and already have arms appearing to be capable of headlining a rotation for years to come as legitimate aces. The teams fortunate enough to strike the jackpot with their first round picks so far are the Pittsburgh Pirates that took Gerrit Cole first overall, the Miami Marlins then followed by selecting Jose Fernandez and then the Oakland Athletics drafted Sonny Gray.
Even outside of these three difference makers, there are a number of starters from the 2011 draft who are showing real potential towards becoming impact hurlers in MLB and are on the cusp of breaking into the league with a bang.
Though it’s probably too soon to be sure who was the best investment, let’s weigh the pros and cons and speculate as to which one(s) has a chance of reaching Cooperstown.
Be sure to cast a vote on the final slide for the guy you see leaving the most lasting impression on the game.
Next: Gerrit Cole
1st overall: Gerrit Cole – PIT
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Cole is a burly, 6-foot-4, 230 pound mass of a man known colloquially as the ‘Cole Train’ to fans, journalists and bloggers. He was taken first overall by the Bucs a year after the club took another pitcher, Jameson Taillon, second overall immediately after the selection of Harper in 2010.
Taillon was a high school prospect, while Cole played NCAA baseball for the UCLA Bruins. Not surprisingly, Cole reached the Majors before Taillon, who is still awaiting his big league debut.
Losing a 2010 College World Series with the Bruins, the Pirates must have been firm on selecting a pitcher that year as they used a second overall pick on Pedro Alvarez in 2008, an 11th overall one on Andrew McCutchen in 2005 and an 11th again in 2004 on Neil Walker to establish a solid core of position players within their system.
Cole’s first two seasons showed gradual progression in both, but 2015 has been outstanding. He leads the Majors in wins with a 10-2 record, a 1.71 ERA and is tied for sixth in strikeouts with 93. A pitching Triple Crown in the National League would make Pittsburgh fans very happy, but that may be wishful thinking at this point in Cole’s career.
Either way, the 24-year-old is emerging as one of the finer right-handers the game has to offer and already has a career WAR of 5.5 in less than 55 career starts. Cole has never gone under the knife (knock on wood) and has a solid core of position players supporting him in Pittsburgh right now to give him ample run support for years to come.
Next: Jose Fernandez
14th overall: Jose Fernandez – MIA
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Fernandez came relatively out of the blue in 2013 as a rookie. At 20, he went 12-6 across 28 starts for the Marlins and posted a minuscule 2.19 ERA, a 2.73 FIP and a strong K/9 of 9.7.
Then at 21, he was mowing the competition down at an even more impressive pace before succumbing to a torn UCL. Before going down, Fernandez had a 2.44 ERA through eight outings. He was lights out with a 12.2 K/9 and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.38. It all seemed to good to be true, like a second coming of Dwight Gooden nearly three decades later, destined to with a ROY and Cy Young in his first to seasons.
The reconstructive Tommy John surgery leaves many questions, but all is not lost. Many pitcher’s after undergoing the procedure have gone on to have long, fruitful careers from the mound. John himself is a shining example. He had what was then a risqué procedure in 1974 and made three All-Star games afterwards, pitching for 14 more seasons and logging over 2500 IP with a 3.66 ERA until he was aged 46.
Fernandez has age on his side, as Cole and Gray were both drafted out of college. He will be only in his age 23 season come 2016, assuming no setbacks befall him until then. He may have to alter his mechanics and develop another pitch in order to decrease the number of times he throws his fastball and thus alleviate some stress from his right elbow.
Set to make his 2015 debut sometime before the All-Star Game, Fernandez’s fastball has been clocked as high as 98 mph in bullpen sessions and rehab starts this year. Once the rust is dusted off, if he’s anywhere near as productive as the Mets’ Matt Harvey has been so far post-TJ surgery, the Marlins should be happy. Fernandez has a WAR of 7.4 in only 36 career starts.
Next: Sonny Gray
18th overall: Sonny Gray – OAK
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The baby-faced Gray is no infant whilst on the bump. He has quickly developed into a building block for Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics. A product of Vanderbilt University, the 25-year-old is the eldest of the three main arms on this list.
However, he is not a power thrower like Cole or Fernandez. Gray’s fastball sits at 93.1 mph, compared to Cole’s at 95.4 mph and Fernandez’s at 94.7 mph. Knowing this, he probably is the most likely of the two remaining pitcher’s to avoid TJ surgery in his career. Like Felix Hernandez, Gray also has six effective pitches in his repertoire that he can rely on.
His career BB/9 of 2.8 shows he has excellent command of his stuff. That, plus his ability to pitch to contact and induce ground balls at a rate of 55.2 percent in his career means Gray gives up less extra base hits. Cole has a career GB% of 50.1 and has HR% of 1.6 in his career so far. Fernandez meanwhile — the prototypical power pitcher of the three, has a GB% of only 45.9 and a HR% of 1.6 in his career. Grays’s current HR% in his career is lower than both at 1.5.
When ballpark factor’s are considered, Fernandez has the best ERA+ mark of 171. He and Gray both pitch in notorious pitcher favorable parks, an immediate advantage to Cole. But Cole’s ERA+ of 119 is not far off from Gray’s 141.
All three players are unique in their own way and offer different pros and cons. For Cole, he’s been the least consistent of the three but balances power pitching with above average control. Fernandez’s big red flag is the TJ surgery obviously, but his age and ceiling appear to be assets over the other two. For Gray, longevity, versatility and consistency are his greatest perks, but his home park might leave some of his numbers askew to date thus far and he is the oldest of the three, being the only one born in the 80’s.
Next: The best of the rest
Picks 2, 3, 4, 7 & 264
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You can see now why Gerrit Cole at No. 2 in 2011 was a difficult decision for any GM in the market for a pitcher.
2nd overall: Danny Hultzen – SEA – The name you are least likely to know about of any from this article, Hultzen won all kinds of awards in college with the Virginia Cavaliers but suffered devastating injuries early in his pro career like Fernandez. The southpaw was currently working in Double-A with a 3.38 ERA in 8 IP. However, his lingering shoulder issues have come back to haunt him recently and he is being held out of action with shoulder fatigue as of May 26. If the now 25-year-old can ever regain his form, he has the pedigree to become an All-Star.
3rd overall: Trevor Bauer – ARI – A teammate of Cole in college with the Bruins, Bauer broke into the Majors in 2012 before any of the aforementioned arms. He was eventually traded to the Indians and struggles with his control from time to time. His 4.3 BB/9 to date is troublesome, but his 8.5 K/9 helps to somewhat offset it. So far, it looks as though the Pirates made the right decision of the two UCLA alumnus’. Bauer has a WAR of 2.3 in 46 lifetime games started.
4th overall: Dylan Bundy – BAL – A 22-year-old former high school signee, Bundy lost all of 2013 to TJ surgery. He’s fighting his way back now and has a respectable 3.68 ERA across eight Double-A starts in 2015. His current BB/9 of 2.0 and K/9 of 10.2 signal that the Oklahoma native is well on his way to overcoming any adversity he faced earlier in his baseball career. Prior to the season, Baseball Prospectus ranked Bundy the No. 8 prospect in all of MiLB.
7th overall: Archie Bradley – ARI – The D-backs parted with Bauer from that same draft and stuck with Bradley. A right-hander built similarly to Cole in physique, he finally cracked the big league roster after spring training this year. He made only eight starts before landing on the DL with shoulder tendonitis. April was kind to him, as he went 2-0 and logged three quality starts in four outings. Things fell apart in May and then the shoulder pain became too much to tolerate. Another high school signing also from Oklahoma and only 22, there is still plenty of time for he and Bundy to make their home state proud.
264th overall: Kyle Hendricks – TEX – More of an afterthought than the other seven names, Hendricks ranks fourth in career WAR (3.8) of any other pitcher selected in 2011. He’s 25 and rarely allows free passes with a career BB/9 of 1.8. With a 3.13 ERA over 24 starts from last season and this one, the risk on him is low, but the reward is surprisingly high. The Rangers traded him in 2012 to the Cubs so they could acquire Ryan Dempster as a half season rental.
So, if you were an MLB general manager and could make a decision now knowing what you know, which pitcher would you draft above any other?