American League Wild Card: Ranking the Contenders

The MLB playoff picture is pretty clear heading into the final week of the season. In reality, all of the NL playoff spots are locked up, from wild card on down. They’re simply jockeying for position. In the AL the Blue Jays and Royals are definitely in. It’s also likely that the Yankees and Rangers will be in as well.

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The last remaining piece of the puzzle is the second AL Wild Card. Heading into the final week of the season there are five teams vying for one wild card spot. So which team will end up on top?

What follows is my best guess as to who will take the second Wild Card ranked from least likely to most likely.

5. Baltimore Orioles (5.5 games back)

Yes, according to the numbers Baltimore still has a chance at a wild card spot. However, in order to get that spot they would have to leapfrog FOUR teams and overcome a 5.5 game deficit in just seven games.

The schedule is also working against the Orioles. They have by far the more difficult remaining schedule of any of these wild card teams. This week they play four games against the Blue Jays and three against the Yankees. They have losing records versus both of those teams this season.

Over their last thirty games Baltimore has been the second worst team out of this group (14-16). Baltimore is still hanging around, but they’re not going to get in.

4. Cleveland Indians (4.0 games back)

Coming into Sunday the Indians had won three games in a a row. It was starting to look like they might really have a chance. However, after losing to the Royals yesterday (thanks to five no-hit innings from Chris Young) they find themselves four games back in the wild card. While I still like this team, overcoming a four game deficit and three other teams in seven days is a lot to ask.

It’s hard not to like a team that will have Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco pitching three of their next seven games. They have four remaining with a team above them in the standings (Minnesota), and then three with the 75-80 Red Sox. However, Cleveland has struggled against Minnesota this season. They’re 6-9 against the Twins this year, and they also have a losing record against the Red Sox (1-2).

The Indians had a rough start to the season, and if May had been any better for them they might be in the playoffs. Part of that slow start stems from the fact that, for a time, they had a historically bad defense. Since then they’ve really been able to turn things around, and there’s a lot to like about Cleveland’s chances NEXT year.

3. Minnesota Twins (1.5 games back)

If you had to pick the most surprising team out of this group it is the Minnesota Twins. According to Baseball Prospectus they were picked to finish last in the division, and only had a 5.7% chance of making the playoffs. No one saw them competing for a playoff spot this season.

However, on June 1 the Twins were 30-19 and in first place in the AL Central.

Even after their hot start most people expected the Twins to come back to earth. On top of that, they lost their highest profile free agent signing Ervin Santana to an 80 game suspension for PED use. They have the 23rd best offense in baseball by wRC+, the 21st best pitching staff by FIP, and the 18th best defense by UZR. There’s not one part of the game that’s powering this run.

So what have they done right? A big part of their success is that they’re 47-33 against teams with a sub-.500 record. They’ve beat up on a lot of bad teams, but that’s what successful teams do. That’t not to mention the boost they received when they called up prospect Miguel Sano. In 72 games for the Twins Sano has hit .277/.393/.546 and accumulated an OPS+ of 153.

The Twins have been a great story this season, but the story will come to an end this week.