Black Friday: MLB’s biggest bargains of 2015

By Eric Roseberry |

Which MLB players offered their teams the most bang for their buck during the 2015 season?

Today is Black Friday. Thousands of people will line up at retail stores around the country to try and get incredible deals on everything their hearts desire. (Deals they could probably also get from home online, but…you do you). In the spirit of the day, I thought it would be a great time to look at some of MLB’s biggest bargains in 2015. Which teams were able to get the most production from a player for the cheapest price?

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Before we look at the players let’s set some ground rules.

In order for a player to qualify they must be at least arbitration eligible, or have already signed an extension with their current team. This keeps the list from being the best players on rookie contracts. Also, even though Bryce Harper did sign a two year 7.5 million extension with the Nationals I decided to leave him off the list. He’s clearly one of if not the biggest bargains in baseball right now.
Mike Trout will not appear on the list. We’ll call this the Mike Trout rule. Seriously, you could pay that guy anything and it would be a bargain.
For the list below I just looked at position players. The pitcher list will follow later this week.
I looked at all players who accumulated at least 3 WAR this season. The WAR totals are from Fangraphs.

With those qualifiers in mind let’s get to the list.

5. Lorenzo Cain

Production: 6.6 WAR
2015 Salary: $2.75 million

Lorenzo Cain burst onto the scene for the Kansas City Royals with a breakout performance in 2014. He followed that up with an even more productive 2015, all while helping the Royals win their first World Series since 1985. A 6.6 WAR player for $2.75 million in Cain’s first year of arbitration? That sounds like a deal to me.

From 2014 to 2015 Cain improved in almost every offensive category. This led to the first All-Star Game selection of his career and a third place finish in AL MVP voting. Add those increased offensive numbers to his defensive measurements, and you can see why he was so valuable this season. By DRS he was the second best center fielder in baseball, trailing only Kevin Kiermaier.

He will clearly get a raise in his second year of arbitration, but if he continues to produce at this level he should continue to be a bargain for Kansas City for the next couple of years.

4. Starling Marte

Production: 3.6 WAR
2015 Salary: $1.3 million

Prior to the 2014 season the Pirates signed Starling Marte to a six-year contract extension. That deal looks like it could be one of the biggest bargains in baseball over the next few seasons. Marie’s 2015 salary was $1.3 million.

Offensively Marte was good this season, even though he took a small step back from the previous two years. He hit .287/.337/.444 with 19 HR, 81 RBI and 30 SB. Those numbers allowed Marte to hover around a top-20 offensive season by an outfielder according to wRC+. However, Marte’s value wasn’t limited to his production at the plate. A lot of his value came from the fact that he was one of baseball’s best outfielders this year.

Defensively the Pirates had one of baseball’s strongest outfields, and Marte was a big part of that. By DRS he was the fourth best outfielder trailing only Kevin Kiermaier, Ender Inciarte and Jason Heyward. Marte’s ability to affect the game in multiple ways ensures that he will add surplus value for years to come.

3. Logan Forsythe

Production: 4.1 WAR
2015 Salary: $1.1 million

Following a disappointing 2014 most weren’t sure what to expect from Logan Forsythe in 2015. What followed was the second best offensive season by a second basemen according to wRC+. 2015 was also Forsythe’s first year of arbitration, and he received $1.1 million in salary. All of these factors led to Forsythe being one of baseball’s biggest bargains in 2015.

Over the course of the year he hit .281/.359/.444. All of these were career highs. His OPS (.804) spiked almost 200 points from the previous season. Couple this with above average defense at second, and you have the formula for a very productive year. Forsythe will be in line for a raise in his second year of arbitration, but at least for this season he provided a lot of value for the money.

2. Francisco Cervelli

Production: 3.8 WAR
2015 Salary: $987,000

In Big Data Baseball, Travis Sawchik talks about the emphasis that the Pirates place on pitch framing and catcher defense. It is a big part of what led them to sign Russell Martin in 2013. Once Martin signed with the Blue Jays prior to last season there were a lot of questions as to whether or not the Pirates could replace his production.

So far the answer to that question has been yes. While Francisco Cervelli doesn’t have the track record that Martin did, he made a huge jump in his first full season behind the plate. As a second-year arbitration eligible player, he earned $987,500 this season. Only Buster Posey (who played 41 games at first base) accumulated more WAR by a catcher, but the Giants paid just under $16 million more for his services.

So what made Cervelli so valuable? He had an above average offensive year, hitting .295/.370/.401. Those batting average and OBP totals were tops among catchers not named Posey.

However, what he did behind the plate added a ton of value. By Baseball Prospectus‘ “extra strikes” stat Cervelli was one of the best pitch framers in baseball. Those same numbers estimate that he saved the Pirates 19 runs this season with this skill.

Cervelli likely won’t be this cheap for very long, but for the time being he’s one of baseball’s best catchers for under $1 million. It’s hard to beat that.

1. Adam Eaton

Production: 3.6 WAR
2015 Salary: $850,000

So who provided the most bang for the buck in 2015? A strong argument could be made for Adam Eaton. Prior to the start of the season the White Sox signed Eaton to a five-year deal worth $23.5 million. The contract also includes two club option years. By the end of the deal he will be earning $8.4 million per season, but in year one he only made $850,000. A 3.6 WAR player for only $850,000? Adam Eaton was the Black Friday television at Best Buy of the 2015 season.

By OPS+ Eaton had his best year to date. The 26-year-old hit .287/.361/.431 to go along with 14 HR, 56 RBI and 18 SB. While DRS and UZR paint the picture of a player who struggled compared to other center fielders this season (admittedly a difficult position), his offensive production was more than able to make up for those deficiencies. At 3.6 WAR Eaton won’t top this list forever, but given his 2015 salary he was one of baseball’s most affordable assets.

Next: Wei-Yin Chen - 5 potential free agent destinations

So what do you think? Who else should be added to this list? Let us know in the comments below.

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