5 MLB Hitters Ready to Have Breakout Years in 2016

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Trying to predict potential breakout players is a favorite offseason pastime of baseball fans. The doldrums of winter are the perfect time to contemplate the “what ifs” of the coming season. Will a top prospect reach the big leagues and immediately produce as several players did a season ago? Will a player who has underperformed the past few seasons finally put it all together?

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What follows is a list of five MLB hitters who are poised to breakout in 2016. The idea of a “breakout” player is difficult to define. Does it refer to a player who really hasn’t played in the majors yet? Is it a role player who could potentially become a star?

For the purposes of this list, a breakout player is defined as someone who has shown above-average promise or ability, but for whatever reason has not been given regular opportunities to produce. These five players, in no particular order, are ready to break out.

Next: 1B Greg Bird - New York Yankees

1B Greg Bird – New York Yankees

On August 13 of last season the Yankees called up the 23 year old Bird. Prior to his call up he split time in Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .277/.356/.469. Upon his arrival in the majors he didn’t disappoint. Over the course of 46 games he hit .261/.343/.529 to go along with 11 HRs and 31 RBI.

Bird has already proven he can produce offensively. He’s been above average relative to his league every step of the way since A ball. All signs, outside of a high K% last season, point to Bird producing at an above-league-average rate once he is given regular playing time.

The major question mark for Bird in 2016 is whether or not he will get enough at-bats to truly breakout. Mark Teixeira is in the final year of his contract, and he will start the season at first base. Alex Rodriguez, who experienced a resurgence in 2015 following a long suspension, will likely be the Yankees opening day starter at DH. As of this time Bird is blocked at his two most likely positions.

Even though both of his positions appear to be filled, there is still a good chance Bird could see significant playing time next season. Teixeira’s injury history is well documented, and it was an injury a year ago that prompted Bird’s call up in the fist place.

Rodriguez’s offensive resurgence was impressive, but there are lingering questions about whether or not the 40 year old (41 in July) will be able to keep producing. It’s possible that Bird could be stuck behind several Yankee veterans for one more season, but one injury or slump could provide all of the opportunity that he needs to become a fixture in the Yankees offense for years to come.

Next: OF Tommy Pham - St. Louis Cardinals

OF Tommy Pham – St. Louis Cardinals

In 2015, the 27-year-old Pham got his first real taste of major league action (in 2014 he had 2 ABs). Over the course of 52 games he hit .268/.347/.477. This line, along with an 11% BB rate, was good enough for a 125 wRC+. Pham’s contributions weren’t limited to the plate as he played just above league average defense in center field based on DRS and UZR numbers.

Like Bird, Pham has shown he can produce. Also like Bird, though, the amount of playing time that he will see in 2016 remains a major question mark. As of today the Cardinals starting outfield would consist of Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty. As long as Grichuk stays healthy and productive, Pham will remain a fourth outfielder at best.

Just like Bird, one slump or injury is all that stands between Pham and regular playing time. His track record suggests that if he’s given the opportunity he could be a productive fixture in the St. Louis outfield.

Next: OF Hyun-Soo Kim - Baltimore Orioles

OF Hyun-Soo Kim – Baltimore Orioles

Kim is the latest position player, along with Byung-ho Park, to make his way to MLB by way of the KBO. There was a time when many major league teams were skeptical that successful KBO hitters could produce at a high level against major league pitching.

However, Jung-Ho Kang’s successful 2015 season with the Pirates has eased some of those concerns. Kim steps in to a situation where he expects to see regular playing time from Opening Day on as the Orioles left fielder.

Kim has shown some pop in his nine KBO seasons. In six of those years he hit at least 16 HRs, and his career slugging percentage sits at .488. The most encouraging aspect of Kim’s offense is his OBP potential. He has tallied a .406 OBP over the course of his professional career, and that patient approach at the plate should help him as he makes the transition to MLB.

Not only could regular playing time lead to a breakout season from Kim, but he’s also heading to one of the best offensive environments in baseball. Oriole Park produced the third most runs in MLB in 2015 trailing only Progressive Field and Coors Field. It also produced the second most home runs per game and third most hits.

Kim couldn’t have picked a better home park to begin his career in, and all of these factors could lead to a break out 2016.

Next: OF Domingo Santana - Milwaukee Brewers

OF Domingo Santana – Milwaukee Brewers

Many might remember Santana as the prospect the Phillies accidentally traded to the Astros in 2011. He is also remembered as part of the prospect package the Astros sent to the Brewers a year ago for Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez. Now, as a member of the Brewers organization, Santana finds himself in a position where he might get his first real taste of extended MLB playing time.

As of today the Brewers outfield is likely to include Khris Davis, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Ryan Braun. However, the Brewers are unlikely to compete this season, and it would make sense for them to eventually give some of their high level prospects a look. There is also the potential that Milwaukee could trade an established player, like Davis, thus opening up regular playing time for Santana.

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs provided a helpful scouting report on Santana in June of 2015. He paints the picture of a high risk/high reward player who flashes above average power, but has a disappointing contact rate.

During his 52 games with Houston and Milwaukee a year ago he had a 33.7 K%. This was well above the league average of 20 percent. In spite of this, his total offensive production was above league average (110 wRC+).

Santana will certainly frustrate some fans with his propensity to strikeout, but if he can continue to hit the ball hard and draw walks the production should be there. The two biggest questions for Santana heading into the season will be whether or not he can consistently hit major league pitching, and if the Brewers will give him enough of an opportunity this year.

Next: OF Michael Conforto - New York Mets

OF Michael Conforto – New York Mets

Of the guys on this list, Conforto feels like the safest bet to “breakout” in 2016. Hardcore fans are well acquainted with the highly touted prospect, but he should make his way onto the casual fans radar this season.

The Mets called up the 22-year-old prospect on July 24. Once in the majors he did what he’s done at every level. He hit and he hit well. Over the course of 56 games for the Mets, Conforto hit .270/.335/.506 to go along with 9 HRs and 26 RBI. His 134 wRC+ is impressive, and as of right now, he’s likely to start in LF for the Mets in 2016.

There’s a lot about Conforto’s game that suggests he will transition to full-time major league duty well. His strikeout rate held right at league average, and he does a good job of drawing walks. His .297 BABIP doesn’t suggest he was a player who got unreasonably lucky a year ago, and at every level he has been able to get on base, which is especially important at the big league level.

While Conforto feels like a slam dunk, there is always the possibility he could experience a set back as pitchers adjust to him. If you’re looking for a player who could put up big numbers in light of his talent level and increased playing time, then Conforto appears to be a nice option.

Who do you think will break out in 2016? Think we’ve missed someone? Let us know in the comments section below.

Next: Multiple teams interested in Bronson Arroyo

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