New York Mets have reason to believe in struggling Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey has looked shaky in his first three starts, but the New York Mets shouldn’t hit the panic button just yet.

New York Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey surely wanted to get the 2016 season started off on the right foot. After a campaign which featured significant controversy over his workload and postseason availability, the 27-year-old right-hander needed to assert himself as one of the game’s best young hurlers while helping his club get another shot at a World Series title.

Through three outings, that narrative hasn’t exactly come together yet. Harvey sports an unwieldy 5.71 ERA in 17.1 innings, having surrendered 11 earned runs on 20 hits while walking seven and striking out nine.

Fortunately for Harvey and the Mets, it’s still very early. Assuming he has a full, healthy season, three starts will encompass less than 10 percent of Harvey’s overall body of work this year. That alone is reason enough for the Mets and their fans to hold off on worrying just yet.

Though Harvey’s results on the mound to this point have been less than ideal, he has still shown flashes of the dominant pitcher he can be. In yesterday’s outing against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field, he retired the first 13 batters he faced. He appeared well on his way to twirling a gem.

Unfortunately, things fell apart from there. The following 13 hitters went 6-for-10 against Harvey, who was bounced from the game after 5.2 frames. He ended up allowing five runs on six hits and three walks in the 7-5 defeat.

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Afterward, Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen expressed his belief that Harvey has been pressing on the mound, trying to be too perfect. “I still think he’s going to have a big, big year,” he said. “I think right now, if we’ve ever seen Matt Harvey press, this might be the time. I mean, he’s trying to force the issue right now.”

In trying to explain Harvey’s recent woes, some may look to last season’s much-discussed 216 inning workload between the regular season and playoffs. It represented quite a jump for the righty after he missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. Harvey acquitted himself well in his return, posting a 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 5.08 K/BB ratio in the regular season, along with a 3.04 ERA in 26.2 postseason frames.

Are his early struggles an effect of all those innings? Harvey doesn’t think so. “My body feels fine,” he assured reporters yesterday. “My arm feels fine.” His velocity is coming in slightly low thus far (94.2 mph average fastball, down from 95.2 last year), but that could certainly correct itself as the season progresses into the summer.

In general, Harvey has faltered with his control and been unable to strike hitters out at his usual high clip. He owns 3.6 BB/9 and 4.7 K/9 rates in the early going, well off his career averages of 2.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9. If Harvey can bring those figures more in line with his typical numbers, things could come together for him rather quickly.

It’s also worth noting that Harvey’s FIP currently stands at 4.06. While that’s not exactly a great number on its own, it’s better than his 5.71 ERA by a wide margin, suggesting that Harvey’s performance hasn’t been quite as bad as it looks on the surface. If a few things start breaking his way, he should see much improved results in the near future.

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At 4-6, the Mets probably aren’t quite where they imagined they would be after 10 games. The situation also seems a bit worse when you’re staring up at the 9-1 Washington Nationals in the NL East standings. Matt Harvey getting himself back on track would go a long way toward reversing the club’s fortunes. At the moment, patience is probably the right call rather than overreaction.