New York Mets’ starter Matt Harvey has been struggling in 2016 and the team keeps insisting its a mechanical issue and even declared that they figured it out. Have they? And if they have, will Harvey yield better results or revert back to his old ways?
Matt Harvey has been dominating the back pages of the New York tabloids this season, but not in a good way. He has struggled mightily of late and the Mets are befuddled by his regression.
Back in late April, the New York Mets declared that they figured out a mechanical issue that had been hampering Harvey’s performance at the beginning of the season. Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen spoke to the Daily News and called pitching from the stretch Harvey’s “bugaboo.” One scout who watched him pitch in Cleveland on April 16 said that Harvey’s leg kick was opening up in stretch and that it was throwing off his delivery.
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Many articles and blog posts were written about the Mets solving Harvey’s mechanical issues and he came out and pitched better for two starts. He didn’t exactly dominate the opposition, and he still had some issues throwing a lot of pitches, and lasting five and six innings respectively, but Harvey was able to keep his run totals down and the Mets won both games.
Then on May 3, in a 3-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves, Harvey only lasted 5 2/3 innings and threw 100 pitches. He followed that up on May 8 with a six inning performance against the San Diego Padres in which he gave up two runs on only four hits. While he earned the win, Harvey threw a lot of pitches (102) and didn’t last as long as the Mets would have hoped.
Harvey was pulled in the sixth inning of his next outing Colorado on May 13, after giving up five runs on 11 hits on 101 pitches, and the Mets looked at video of Harvey’s pre-Tommy John outings in 2013 to see if they could figure out if it was an arm slot issue that was also contributing to Harvey’s struggles. But instead of figuring things out, Harvey followed up the start in Colorado with his worst start of the season against the Washington Nationals. On that day, May 19 in Citi Field, Harvey only lasted 2 2/3 innings, gave up nine runs (six earned) on eight hits with two walks and two strikeouts and he threw 61 pitches.
And there was no rest for the weary, because Harvey faced Washington again in his very next start, this time in Washington, D.C. on May 24. Harvey struggled, once again, giving up five runs on eight hits, including three home runs and only striking out one batter in five innings of work. Harvey walked off the mound after throwing 84 pitches and left the ballpark without talking to reporters.
Following that abysmal start, everything from fatigue to pitch tipping was being blamed for Harvey’s issues, so the Mets had him throw a 25-pitch simulated game in front of Warthen on May 27 before their start against the Los Angeles Dodgers with the hopes that he could find mechanical flaws. Mets’ manager Terry Collins didn’t disclose what those issues were after Harvey’s session ended, but he insisted, like he has all season, that Harvey’s issues are not from fatigue or pitch tipping. He stated that Harvey is not making his pitches when he needs to, and according to Collins, facing live batters during these sessions will help Harvey figure out what’s wrong mechanically more than just throwing the ball.
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We are nearly three months into the season and the Mets have claimed that they solved Harvey’s issues before so what’s different now? And why should Mets fans even believe them when they say they’ve figured things out? In April, it was the leg kick. In May, it’s his arm slot and mystery reason Collins would disclose, so what will the problem be in June?
Harvey’s biggest issue so far this season is that his mechanics seem to worsen as the game goes on. Not only that, but his velocity drops as well. He’ll start off firing the ball into his catcher’s glove, but as the game progresses, he’ll lose 2-3 mph off his fastball, in some cases going from 96-97 to 92-93 in one start, and even from one inning to the next. Harvey also has major problems when facing a lineup for the third time. Per Marc Carig of Newsday: Opponents have an OPS of .666 against him the first time through the order and it nearly doubles to 1.324 the third time through the order.
Harvey has been relying heavily on his four seam fastball, according to Brooks Baseball. He’s throwing it nearly twice as much as his change, curve, and slider combined. And he only started using a sinker, in May—he’s only thrown four of them.
It’s fine to rely on the hard stuff, as long as your mixing in your breaking pitches and off speed pitches. It’s also fine to rely on your fastball if you’re not throwing it right down the middle and only at 93-94 mph. Major League hitters can adjust easier to balls that aren’t moving. Two of the three home runs Harvey surrendered to the Nationals on May 24 were off 87.5 mph changeups—Ryan Zimmermann and Anthony Rendon—but Daniel Murphy connected on a 94.7 mph fastball right down the middle of the plate.
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We will find out on Monday afternoon when Harvey faces the Chicago White Sox in Citi Field, if the Mets have finally solved Harvey’s issues, but if he has another bad outing, the Mets may have a real problem on their hands going forward.