MLB: Will We Ever See Another Player Reach 500 Home Runs?

Not a chance

Quite a few players in MLB today stand an excellent chance of getting to 400 career homers, but have zero shot of 500 according to the projection. There are a variety of reasons for this whether it be age, a dropoff in production, or injuries that have led to lost seasons.

Among the top 100 active career home run hitters the most likely to get to 400 home runs with not a chance of 500 are Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. They would join Carlos Beltran, who got to 400 earlier this season.

Beltran is 39, and though he’s experiencing a resurgence of sorts lately, is projected to finish his career with 442 longballs, which would tie him with Dave Kingman. Fielder, despite only being 32 years old, is given just a one percent chance of 500, with his projected career mark being 408. His being benched recently certainly won’t help him get there.

The projection is slightly kinder to Gonzalez, giving him nine percent odds of amassing 500. The 34-year-old Dodger is projected to hang it up with 415 for his career.

Also of note is the Cincinnati Reds’ Jay Bruce, who the projection gives a 10 percent shot at reaching 500 home runs. Bruce is just 29, and has averaged 30 homers per 162 games played in his career. While he is the constant focus of trade rumors, playing at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park for a few more years could certainly make him a legitimate contender.

Next: Not likely, but possible.