MLB: 5 Storylines to Watch For in the Second Half

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Jul 12, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; National League players line up for the national anthem before the 2016 MLB All Star Game at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

The second half of the MLB season is around the corner after last night’s All-Star game, and with a slew of teams still in the running, including the Philadelphia Phillies (what the…?), there will be a number of storylines to keep an eye out for throughout the rest of the 2016 season.

I generally don’t follow the typical storylines throughout the MLB season. There are just too many for each team for MLB Network to cover them all, so I wanted to make a brief list of some of the storylines that we likely won’t be hearing much about for the rest of the season, but that doesn’t make them any less intriguing in the long run for baseball fans.

This isn’t going to be a list of the usual suspects. You won’t see any mention of the Chicago Cubs on this list. Ok, there is a brief mention, but they aren’t the focal point of the storyline. I’m only human. What you will find are some under-the-radar stories that may not ultimately have an effect on the rest of this season, but could play a big role in determining future seasons. We’re talking breakout stars, in-state rivalries and the development of young players.

Next: No Runs For You

Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer doesn’t seem to get enough publicity for the remarkable run that he has been on. Perhaps it’s because his Detroit Tigers are just three games above .500 at 46-43 and the team above them, the Cleveland Indians, had been running away with the AL Central. Cleveland had been struggling as the Midsummer Classic approached, and with the Tigers in just 6.5 back at the break, Fulmer’s development in the second half could determine whether or not Detroit makes a serious playoff run.

Acquired by the Tigers at last year’s trade deadline from the New York Mets for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Fulmer made his big league debut on April 29 in Minnesota. Through his first four starts, the right-hander was unspectacular, accumulating a 6.52 ERA while earning a 2-1 record. That ERA now sits at 2.11, which should put Fulmer in the AL Rookie of the Year driver’s seat, after allowing just three runs in his last eight starts, or four in his last nine. He hasn’t allowed more than five hits in any of those starts and had a streak of three straight starts allowing no runs and two or fewer hits.

Since May 21, his ERA sits at a Kershaw-esque 0.63. The one cause for concern when it comes to Fulmer is his BABIP against of .252, which, once he hits his innings requirement, would rank as the 10th lowest among starters as things currently stand, between Brandon Finnegan‘s .246 and Doug Fister‘s .254. Sixth on the list is Max Scherzer at .241, while Madison Bumgarner (.255) and Clayton Kershaw (.262) rank 12th and 16th. Only time will tell if his place on that list is legitimate like those three aces, or if he is just having an extremely impressive run but will regress to the mean. I can’t wait to find out.

Next: You Shall Not Pass

Houston Astros

After a hot stretch of baseball, the Houston Astros find themselves back in the divisional race in the AL West. Their one obstacle is their in-state rivals up north, both geographically and in the standings. That seems easy enough, right? Houston trails the Texas Rangers by 5.5 games, which is a perfectly manageable deficit to work with, especially when the team you’re chasing has had numerous injuries to their starting rotation. I mean, how long can they keep it up?

Well, Texas is 9-1 against the Astros this season, and went 13-6 against them last year, so that hill seems is starting to resemble that of Tal. Since Houston joined the AL West for the 2013 season, the Astros are just 20-47 against the Rangers, and eleven of those wins came in 2014 when the Rangers were ravaged by injuries and finished last in the division. That 20-47 record works out to a .299 winning percentage, which is well below the .340 clip they put up in 2012 when they won just 55 games. That’s how dominant the Rangers have been. Over the course of a full season that’s a 48-win team.

More from Call to the Pen

So this is a big storyline to keep an eye on. The Astros have made some bad trades over the past year, starting at last year’s trade deadline when they acquired Carlos Gomez, Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers for a slew of top-rated prospects. Over the winter they added Ken Giles, who has rebounded from his horrendous April, much like the Astros, to become a solid option in the ‘Stros bullpen, but in order to get him it cost Vincent Velasquez, who the team could certainly use right now, and some other nice depth options.

The key for the Astros for the remainder of 2016 will be how well their latest slew of call-ups perform the rest of the way. A.J. Reed has struggled while getting his feet wet in the majors, but is their best bet to get some solid production out of first base, and Alex Bregman, after his showing in the Futures Game on Sunday, should be in Houston any day now. Those two, along with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, are the nucleus for the team moving forward. With the team’s pitching staff not quite what it was last season, the offense is going to have to carry more of the burden moving forward–and this group is certainly capable–if they hope to get past Texas.

Next: How Long Can the Good Times Last?

Philadelphia Phillies

Yeah, so the Philadelphia Phillies are just six games under .500 at 42-48. You know, like everyone expected. Before the season I had Philadelphia finishing in third place in the NL East, which doesn’t seem likely at this point, but I also wasn’t banking on the Miami Marlins being quite as good as they have shown. So I am surprised by the Phillies, but not quite schocked. The interesting part of this equation is that they are just six games back of the second wild card spot in the National League, and while they should have no aspirations towards making the playoffs this season, the future may be arriving a bit sooner in the City of Brotherly Love than we had planned.

All-Star outfielder Odubel Herrera has been a major cog for the Phillies offense this season, cutting down his strikeout rate from last year’s 24% mark to 18.3 % this season, while more than doubling his walk rate from 2015, up to 11.6%.

Byron Buxton and the Minnesota Twins

2016 has been a rough one for the Minnesota Twins and their fans. If everything broke their way, they had a chance to contend for a playoff spot. Instead, they find themselves with a 32-56, no longer with the worst record in baseball (that belongs to the rebuilding Atlanta Braves at 31-58) and 20 games back of Cleveland in the division. The rest of the season will be an exercise in futility at this point, as far as this year is concerned.

But I’m not concerned about this season. Instead, I am looking to see how former top prospect in all of baseball Byron Buxton finishes out the year. I want to know if Byung-ho Park was a complete waste of money. When is Jose Berrios going to get another look? And for the love of all that is good can we see one of their flame throwing prospects pump some gas out of the bullpen?

There isn’t a lot that any of these factors can do to affect this season besides win-out, but how they develop over the course of the second half could wash the sour taste of the first half out of their mouths and get the team back to where they ought to be to start 2017.

With a deep farm system, the Twins figure to be contenders in the near future. A lot of that promise rides on the young shoulders of Buxton, who has hit just .211 in his young big league career. He’s striking out entirely too much at 37.2% this year, but even with his lower-than-expected offensive output, he’s still, just barely, a plus-WAR player at 0.1 according to FanGraphs. The Twins have a lot of pieces that could make for a solid squad of players soon, and we should see plenty of those players in the coming months.

Getting someone to bite on acquiring Ervin Santana at the trade deadline would be a big step in the right direction, freeing up some cash down the road.

Next: Which Starters Stick?

Mar 5, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (51) throws a pitch in the second inning of the spring training game against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports /

Pittsburgh’s Arms Race

At 46-43 and winners of eight of their last ten, the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves 7.5 games back in what was thought to be an unwinnable division back in April. The team has tantalized both fantasy owners and the baseball world by showing off some of the arms in their farm system, most notably Tyler Glasnow (currently in the minors) and Jameson Taillon (currently on the DL), who have both pitched relatively well in their stints with Pittsburgh.

According to the box score, Glasnow gave up four earned in his debut over 5.1 innings, but three of those runs came around to score after Arquimedes Caminero relieved the right-hander with two on and one away and gave up a three-run shot to Stephen Piscotty.

Pittsburgh’s number three prospect entering the season, first baseman Josh Bell also debuted last week and is batting 1.000, so that’s certainly sustainable. Ok, he’s 2-for-2 with a walk, a base hit and a pinch-hit grand slam–still pretty good. Seeing how the Pirates work Bell into the lineup on a more regular basis as John Jaso is ever the OBP machine, will be interesting. Jaso struggles against lefties, but Bell has hit both lefties and righties well this season with Triple-A Indianapolis–.310 against LHP and .330 against RHP–so the obvious answer would be to start out with a straight platoon, which could work into Bell taking over the job as the season progresses.

Jon Niese, Francisco Liriano and Jeff Locke all have ERAs above five, and could be battling to keep their rotation spots once Glasnow is deemed more than a spot-starter and Gerritt Cole, Taillon return from the disabled list.

Next: Should the Phillies Trade Hellickson?

If Andrew McCutchen can turn it on as he has been known to do in previous seasons, the Pirates have a chance at challenging the Cubs (and Cardinals) for the NL Central. At the very worst, they should be in the wild card race for the rest of the season, and maybe this is the year they break through.

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