Current American League Cy Young Ballot

As we near the end of the season, the favorites for the major awards become clearer and a “mock ballot,” if you will, becomes possible. I do not have a vote for the American League Cy Young, as I am not a registered baseball writer; however, I like to think that I have the knowledge available to create a pretty good, and accurate, ballot.

The American League Cy Young award is probably the one award that’s truly up in the air. The NL Cy Young comes close because of the Kershaw injury, but if he returns at some point this regular season he will probably still take the award. Because the race for the AL Cy Young is still very much up for grabs, it was slightly challenging to not only narrow a list of contenders to five players but to also rank those players. With that said, this ballot is the best representation of how I would vote for the American League Cy Young as things stand today.

There were some notable names that I left off that could still work their way onto the ballot. Chris Sale has had an impressive season, but he would have to switch back to the dominant, strikeout pitcher he previously was in order to sneak back in to the top 5. Danny Duffy is a surprising possible contender for the award, but his innings count has fallen slightly behind the rest of the top pitchers due to pitch count restraints. Danny Salazar seemed like a favorite for awhile, but he has walked a ton of batters and is now on the disabled list with an injury; if he returns from the injury and performs well, he could easily work his way back into the discussion. A final honorable mention goes to Cole Hamels, who is having a great season as the ace of the first place Rangers staff.

Next: An Odd Case

#5 Aaron Sanchez

Aaron Sanchez is an interesting case because he doesn’t fit the typical mold of a player that I would vote for. His ERA is tied for best in the American League, as of Wednesday night, and he has the standout record of 11-2 so far this season. However, with a move to the bullpen imminent his case for the Cy Young becomes cloudier.

Sanchez gets a spot on my ballot because of the low ERA, but there isn’t a whole lot else that excites me about his pitching. However, a lot can be said about a pitcher that is able to suppress runs at a good rate, especially during a single season sample. If we treat the Cy Young as an award based solely on performance, there’s a great amount of value in a pitcher that can suppress runs while going deep into games like Sanchez has over a full season.

Keeping this rate for a full season, however, becomes the question with Sanchez. With all the talk surrounding how the Blue Jays will handle his innings limit, there is a lot of uncertainty about how he will finish his season. At some point this season, the Blue Jays are either going to have to move him to the bullpen or shut him down completely.

If Sanchez is moved to the bullpen and continues to pitch like he has, or even better, he will probably still be in line to receive some Cy Young votes. His run suppression has been great, and moving to the bullpen could beef up that ERA even more. If he is shut down for the season, his chances of getting any Cy Young votes at all decrease significantly.

However, this ballot is only considering things as they stand right now. Currently, Sanchez has some Cy Young value but not enough for me to give him a vote beyond 5th place.

Next: A Reliever??

#4 Andrew Miller

I was incredibly hesitant to include Andrew Miller on my ballot, but after looking at last season’s voting I realized that I wasn’t crazy to include a reliever. Last year Wade Davis finished 6th in Cy Young voting and was included on 7 ballots. While Wade Davis did have a great year, Andrew Miller has been even better this year. Perhaps being demoted from the “closer roll” with the Yankees in the early part of the season has tarnished people’s views on him, but he has been an incredibly good pitcher this season. His willingness to step outside of a traditional closer roll and pitch when the team needs him most, as he did last night in the 7th and 8th inning against the Nationals, makes him even more valuable.

Because Miller is a special case as a reliever, I decided to compare him to Wade Davis, who got votes for the Cy Young last season. In 2015 Wade Davis was a monster in the bullpen, posting a 0.94 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 31.1% strikeout rate, and 3.90 K/BB. While ERA can be skewed because he pitches in such short spurts, the rest of the stats can easily be compared to starters; Davis was among the best in all three of those categories, thus earning Cy Young Votes.

In those same statistical categories, Andrew Miller is posting better numbers in all but one category (ERA). So far this season Miller has a 1.65 ERA, 0.78 WHIP,  an incredible 44.6% strikeout rate, and 11.85 K/BB. Essentially, Miller has struck out a ton of batters while allowing very few baserunners during his 49 innings pitched this season. So why is his ERA higher than Davis’ was in 2015? Miller does have a weakness. Andrew Miller has given up home runs at a rate of 1.29 per 9 innings pitched; if we assume that Miller pitches almost entirely in 1 inning appearances, that’s one home run per 7 appearances. That comes out to 0.14 home runs per inning/appearance, which is very good; however, it explains the slightly increase in Miller’s ERA compared to Davis’.

Because this ballot is being treated as my vote, I think the most important stats that Miller has are his strikeout rate and K/BB ratio, both of which are incredibly good despite the sample size being small because he’s only pitched 49 innings. For that reason, Andrew Miller is on the ballot but doesn’t rise above any of the starters I have on the ballot, other than Aaron Sanchez who is and isn’t a starter.

Next: The Knuckleballer

#3 Steven Wright

Perhaps Steven Wright doesn’t belong this high on the ballot, but for some reason he has enamored me this season. Whether it’s the fact that he’s the always mysterious and amusing knuckleballer or that he so shockingly jumped on the stage this season, he has impressed me in 2016. There are pitchers with better numbers, no doubt, but Wright gets my third place vote purely because he’s fun to watch.

Wright doesn’t have the greatest numbers this season, but he certainly has some very good statistics. Right now he holds a 3.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 20.2% strikeout rate, and 2.41 K/BB. Despite having a walk rate of 8.4%, which is almost 3 whole percentage points above what Dickey’s was the year he won the Cy Young, Wright has managed to keep a pretty good K/BB ratio.

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As for his value to his team, Steven Wright has essentially kept the Red Sox in the AL East race because of how well he has pitched. The Red Sox went into the season expecting their newly signed star to be the ace, but David Price has disappointed. Luckily for the offensive powerhouse Red Sox, Wright came along and has pitched great all season long.

Wright’s ERA would be even better if you take away his two worst starts, one of which was in the rain (known to hurt a knuckleballer’s pitches). Granted, a lot of pitchers would be better if you took away their poor performances, but this goes to show how dominant Wright has been most of the season. He has pitched 146.2 innings for the Red Sox, with 4 complete games, two of which being complete game shutouts. In four other starts aside from the complete game shutouts, Wright has gone 7 or more innings while giving up 1 run or less.

Wright gets the third place vote because he’s both interesting and dominant. His ability to eat innings while limiting runs has been crucial to the Red Sox success this season.

Next: Mr. No Decision

#2 Jose Quintana

Since 2012, Jose Quintana has 58 no decisions; no single pitcher during that timeframe has more than him. In that same span, Jose Quintana has an ERA of 3.38 and WHIP of 1.24. What I’m trying to say here is that Jose Quintana isn’t the type of guy who gets a lot of wins, but that shouldn’t detract from how great of a pitcher he has been in his career, and in 2016 specifically.

To no surprise of White Sox fans, Jose Quintana has received almost no attention for the Cy Young. Regardless, he should be in heavy consideration given how well he has pitched all season long. Following Wednesday night’s no decision after going 7 1/3 innings and giving up just a single run, Quintana has an ERA of 2.85, which is now tied with Aaron Sanchez for the best in the American League.

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Quintana is excelling in other statistical categories as well, posting a 1.12 WHIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, and 3.76 K/BB. He is also tied for third in the American League in fWAR with his teammate Chris Sale and division rival Justin Verlander at 3.5 WAR.

The stats stand for themselves. Jose Quintana is having a fantastic season, if not the best season of all pitchers in the American League. If you focus on win-loss record, Quintana’s season doesn’t look all that pretty. Luckily we have moved past that time in baseball, and we can recognize just how good Quintana has been this season. There’s not a whole lot that Jose Quintana doesn’t do well, so for that reason he gets my second place vote.

Next: The Former Winner