MLB: Better Long Term Value – Manny Machado or Bryce Harper?

Two of the biggest stars in the MLB, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, are both set to hit free agency in 2018. Which one should get the larger contract?

The 2010 MLB Draft has produced some of the most prolific players in the last decade. From number one overall pick, Bryce Harper, to many others in the first round like Manny Machado, Chris Sale, and Matt Harvey, the draft was stacked with talent that has blossomed at the major league level. Even the second overall pick, Jameson Taillon, made his debut this season and impressed before his injury. Despite Chris Sale, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and many others having very successful careers to this point, the focus of the draft has always been on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

Harper was the obvious first overall pick, and a no-brainer for the Washington Nationals because of his advanced abilities at the plate. Machado was viewed as a lot more raw than Harper, but with the ceiling to become an All-Star short stop. Long story short, they were both expected to be stars even at the time, and they both became the stars scouts saw they had the potential to be.

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Bryce Harper started his career with 4 very good seasons, capped off by an incredible 2015 season where he won the National League MVP. Machado, on the other hand, hasn’t quite reached that level. He’s never finished higher than 4th in MVP voting (2015), and no single season compares to how Harper performed in 2015. However, he’s never had a season where he has played more than half the season and not been an American League All-Star. The same goes for winning the gold glove, provided he wins this season.

Following the large contracts given out in last year’s offseason, many predictions were made about the amount of money a team like the Yankees would throw at Bryce Harper. Estimated numbers rose even above half a billion dollars. Now Harper has struggled in 2016. Could his struggles leave room for a player like Machado to sneak in a get a larger contract?

About a year ago, even questioning whether Machado would get more money than Bryce Harper was ludicrous. Bryce Harper was in the midst of one of the best seasons in recent MLB history. Even a month into the 2016 season, it seemed like Harper was going to keep up his ridiculous pace from 2015. Then something happened, whether it be injury or simply bad luck, Harper stopped hitting.

Not only did he stop hitting like a superstar, he stopped hitting period. In the first month of the season, Harper hit nine home runs and .286 for the month; it wasn’t an outstanding month, but it was very good. In May he hit .200 with 4 home runs. In June he hit .280 with three home runs. In his worst month of all, July, he hit just .176 and only hit four home runs. Things have gotten slightly better for Harper in August, be he remains nowhere near the production we have become accustomed to seeing from him.

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Meanwhile, Machado is having himself another fine season. He isn’t quite on the same level as Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Josh Donaldson this year, but he has put together a very good season both offensively and defensively.

Machado, like Harper, got off on a great start in 2016, being named the American League Player of the Month during the first month of the season. However, as Harper mysteriously declined, Machado continued to dominate opposing pitchers. For the season, Manny Machado is hitting .306/.358/.564 with 31 home runs and a wRC+ of 140. He ranks 8th in wRC+ in the American League and 5th in fWAR in the American League. He’s become one of the premier players at a premier position, showing his defensive ability at both third base and shortstop for a small amount of time this season.

While Machado still hasn’t quite reached the level of play of Trout or Donaldson, he has shown during his career that he is one of the top players in the league. His abilities defensively are nearly unquantifiable, showing range, a strong arm, and the intangible ability to make great plays. His numbers at the plate speak for themselves.

Machado and Harper have always been linked by the simple fact that they were drafted only a couple picks apart. Both were highly touted prospects in one of the best drafts in recent memory. Both have more than exceeded the expectations laid out for them as prospects. Both will enter free agency following the 2018 season.

Next: The Dangers of Long Term Free Agency Contracts

Who will receive the higher contract? That remains unknown. Right now Machado has taken a slight edge of Harper. Luckily for teams considering either player, they have a couple more years to make their evaluations and decide which player deserves what will most likely be the largest contract in MLB history.