New York Mets: Can Seth Lugo Keep It Up?
Over the past three weeks, Seth Lugo has been one of the best starters in the New York Mets rotation. Can he keep this level of performance up?
On August 19 Seth Lugo made his first major league start for the New York Mets. As of that day he’s made five starts and earned a 4-1 record with a 2.27 ERA. This recent run of success has come at the perfect time for the Mets, who are desperate for starting pitching. Steven Matz is on the DL, and New York has already lost Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler for the season. Jacob deGrom has been battling “forearm discomfort,” but should return shortly.
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In light of the Mets’ injury struggles, Lugo’s performance has been crucial to the team’s success. However, can he keep this level of performance up through the end of the season? Mark Simon of ESPN recently set out to answer that question. Ultimately, his answer was no.
Simon looked at Lugo’s performance and highlighted a few areas of concern (e.g. Lugo’s low strikeout rate). However, Lugo’s MLB numbers aren’t the only reason to worry. His recent minor league statistics don’t paint the picture of a solid major league starter. Prior to making his debut with the Mets in July, Lugo had pitched in 21 games for New York’s Triple-A affiliate. In those appearances (14 were starts) he had a 6.50 ERA. During that stretch his HR/9 rate jumped to up to 1.23.
That’s not to say you can’t find reasons for optimism. If you’re looking for a reason to believe in Lugo, look no further than his curveball. Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan recently wrote about the pitch and noted, “The average spin rate is way higher than anyone else’s.” He suggests that higher spin rates on curveballs could lead to “reduced slugging” and “increased whiffing,” but he admits the evidence isn’t strong. Interestingly, Lugo’s curveball usage has declined every month he’s been in the majors. In July he was throwing the pitch 19.3 percent of the time, and that rate has lowered to 15.31 percent in August. His transition from reliever to starter might have something to do with this change.
Lugo’s run has been unexpected, to say the least. His continued success is crucial for a Mets team hanging on to the final Wild Card spot by half a game. To make the postseason you have to be good, and in most cases you also need a little luck. The Mets have found both of those things in Seth Lugo this season.