New York Mets: Expectations for Steven Matz in 2017

The New York Mets rotation was torn to pieces in 2017, and Steven Matz was one of the victims. What can the Mets expect in 2017?

After an appearance in the 2015 World Series, the Mets looked like they would have a rotation that was thoroughly unstoppable. They had top-end talent in Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey, an impressive group of middle guys in Bartolo Colon and Jacob deGrom, and a young pitcher with a bright future in the final spot. That young pitcher was Steven Matz. As you likely know, the Mets rotation absolutely crumbled during the 2016 season. Steven Matz had a part in that crumbling.

Matz pitched through bone spurs in his elbow during the season, and had surgery to fix the issue in the offseason. He missed some time with the injury, but it was something he ultimately fought through until the end of the season. He is ready to go for the season, according to a Newsday story by Owen O’Brien. That’s certainly a good sign for the Mets, who faced an injury to pretty much every starter during the past season. The one question that remains is what the Mets can expect to get from Matz during the coming year.

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Unlike Syndergaard and DeGrom, the Mets two other young pitchers, Matz has yet to fully prove his prospect prowess in the big leagues. That does not mean that he won’t, but Matz still has room to reach his full potential. Matz was a large frame starter with a good fastball, changeup, and curve when he first rose to the big leagues in 2015. His command was above average, but he still walked batters at times. In 2016, he added a slider to the repertoire. That slider faded out of his selection as the problem with bone spurs rose, but it might make a return in the coming season.

Matz with the slider is a great pitcher, but he was quite good without the offering as well. His changeup has deception and his curveball is very effective as a secondary pitch. Matz’s Tommy John surgery history is concerning, especially with the injury he suffered this past season, but the Mets and Matz both appear to be confident in his abilities.

During the past season Matz threw 132.1 innings. He had a 3.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 23.6% strikeout rate. Those numbers aren’t all that impressive on their own, especially his WHIP and strikeout rate. But one must remember that Matz is still very young and scouting based on a stat line can lead to some very incorrect assumptions and conclusions. Matz is yet to pitch to his full potential. In another sense, those numbers can be sobering when considered the expectations for a pitcher like Matz.

With Syndergaard and deGrom being so successful, the pressure is off of Matz for the time being. Harvey may also be a very good pitcher once again. Naturally this means that the Mets, and their fans, won’t have lofty expectations that are nearly unreachable for the young pitcher.

While Matz was a favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award as the Mets headed into the 2016 season, there may be less belief in him this season. That would be reasonable when considering the way he pitched in 2016 along with the injury history. Matz has been projected to be a middle of the rotation starter, which seems to be a pretty good expectation for his 2017 season.

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He will likely lower his ERA and WHIP, which will make him fit in more reasonably in the middle of that Mets rotation. It’s worth noting that Matz’s DRA is incredibly similar to his ERA (3.41 compared to 3.40). That may mean that this is basically what Matz is in terms of run prevention. A mid 3.00 ERA is perfectly fine for a middle rotation pitcher. That’s pretty much what Matz is and will be.

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