Washington Nationals: Has Stephen Strasburg Fulfilled Prospect Potential?

We often think about prospect potential in the future, but what if we do it by looking in the past? Has former Washington Nationals number one pick Stephen Strasburg fulfilled his potential?

Prospects fail all the time. Prospects out-perform expectations all the time. It’s in the nature of watching young players develop that they often do things that are unpredictable and unexpected. The list of top picks that turned out to be busts is long. The list of top picks that actually turned out to be stars is a more fun list to look at. The Washington Nationals have one–probably two but we’re not talking about him–of those great players in Stephen Strasburg.

If we can rewind to 2010 when Strasburg reached the height of his prospect prowess and made his debut, we can see the huge potential that many saw in him. The average baseball fan was caught up in the mania of Strasburg’s great first start. The scouts drooled over the pure pedigree.

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One of the biggest problems that young pitchers with high velocity face during their time of development is finding the strike zone. From there the pitchers must then learn true command of their pitches, putting each pitch exactly where they want it. Strasburg never had a problem with that. He had great command of both his fastball and his breaking ball when he arrived in the big leagues. That already separated him from the field.

In addition to brilliant command, Strasburg’s velocity was high and the breaking ball was fantastic. His third pitch was a changeup that rose above 90 mph, making it tough to harness. However, even that pitch was well above average. That combination of tools led to dreamy, lofty expectations for the young righty.

One Tommy John Surgery and multiple injuries later, Strasburg is still that same pitcher. The one problem that remains is the injuries. During the 2016 season he appeared to be in the hunt for the Cy Young award before injuries whipped him in and out of action. He pitched 147.2 innings with a 3.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 30.6% K% before suffering a season-ending injury. He has pitched just one postseason game, in which he didn’t impress but mostly got the job done.

If we can put the injuries aside for the moment, Strasburg has mostly become the pitcher that scouts and fans expected him to be. While his walk rate did rise from 2015 to 2016–by 2.4 percentage points–the command that he was praised for in 2010 was still evident in 2016. His strikeout rate has hung around 30% for the duration of his career. The ERA has never risen above the 3.60 mark he posted this season during a full major league season. At times, his run prevention has been downright elite. At all times, his ability to strike batters out has been at superstar level. Everything that scouts expected to be there throughout his career has been there for each of the six seasons he’s played in.

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Finding a true ace is difficult. Only 10-15 of them exist in Major League Baseball. There’s not a single current prospect with real ace potential. The probability of a player like Stephen Strasburg actually becoming an ace was slim. Because of injuries and one of the best pitchers in baseball being on his team, Strasburg hasn’t quite gotten there yet. With another two years before reaching age 30, Strasburg still has time to become that player. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he reaches that level in the very near future.

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