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MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 15, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; General view of Minute Maid Park before a game between the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 15, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; General view of Minute Maid Park before a game between the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

(W=wins, RS=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed)

Vegas odds to win the pennant in parenthesis

PECOTA

93 W, 768 RS, 647 RA—Houston Astros (7/1)

87 W, 770 RS, 713 RA—Seattle Mariners (15/1)

84 W, 766 RS, 730 RA—Texas Rangers (12/1)

78 W, 720 RS, 749 RA—Los Angeles Angels (40/1)

75 W, 676 RS, 737 RA—Oakland Athletics (60/1)

 

FANGRAPHS

90 W, 794 RS, 708 RA—Houston Astros (7/1)

84 W, 739 RS, 714 RA—Los Angeles Angels (40/1)

83 W, 740 RS, 721 RA—Seattle Mariners (15/1)

83 W, 781 RS, 760 RA—Texas Rangers (12/1)

77 W, 723 RS, 758 RA—Oakland Athletics (60/1)

 

Biggest difference in wins: Los Angeles Angels, 6 wins

Biggest difference in runs scored: Oakland Athletics, 47 runs

Biggest difference in runs allowed: Houston Astros, 61 runs

 

Smallest difference in wins: Texas Rangers, 1 win

Smallest difference in runs scored: Texas Rangers, 15 runs

Smallest difference in runs scored: Seattle Mariners, 8 runs

Once again, both systems have the same team at the top of the division—the Houston Astros. PECOTA likes the Astros just a bit more than FanGraphs. The main difference is that PECOTA sees the Astros allowing 61 fewer runs.

The Texas Rangers led the American League with 95 wins last year. They are projected for 84 and 83 wins by PECOTA and FanGraphs, respectively. The regression can be explained by the Rangers vastly outperforming their run differential last year. Based on their runs scored and allowed, they “should” have been an 82-80 team. They were 36-11 in one-run games, which is not likely to be repeated. In games decided by more than one run they were just slightly better than .500 (59-56).

The team that PECOTA and FanGraphs disagreed on the most in this division is the Los Angeles Angels. PECOTA pegs them to win 78 games, while FanGraphs sees them as an 84-win team, which would be a 10-win increase over last year. Of course, their runs scored and runs allowed suggested they played more like an 80-82 team last year, so picking them to win 78 (PECOTA) or 84 (FanGraphs) doesn’t seem so crazy. In this case, Vegas agrees more with PECOTA than FanGraphs. The Angels are 40/1 to win the AL West.

Both systems agree that the Oakland Athletics are the basement-dwellers. Vegas concurs, giving them 60/1 odds, which is worse than the rebuilding White Sox. There’s no word on the odds that the Athletics will get a ballpark anytime soon.

 

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