Call to the pen
Fansided

MLB: Comparing Projected Standings From FanGraphs and PECOTA

By Bobby Mueller

Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the centerfield scoreboard at Wrigley Field during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
5 of 8
Next
Apr 8, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; General view of Citi Field before the New York Mets home opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 8, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; General view of Citi Field before the New York Mets home opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. MLB. /

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

(W=wins, RS=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed)

Vegas odds to win the pennant in parenthesis

PECOTA

88 W, 716 RS, 649 RA—New York Mets (15/2)

87 W, 744 RS, 685 RA—Washington Nationals (5/1)

77 W, 684 RS, 718 RA—Miami Marlins (30/1)

76 W, 662 RS, 705 RA—Atlanta Braves (60/1)

74 W, 665 RS, 731 RA—Philadelphia Phillies (60/1)

 

FANGRAPHS

90 W, 766 RS, 679 RA—Washington Nationals (5/1)

84 W, 705 RS, 679 RA—New York Mets (15/2)

79 W, 710 RS, 729 RA—Miami Marlins (30/1)

74 W, 667 RS, 734 RA—Atlanta Braves (60/1)

71 W, 671 RS, 678 RA—Philadelphia Phillies (60/1)

 

Biggest difference in wins: New York Mets, 4 wins

Biggest difference in runs scored: Miami Marlins, 26 runs

Biggest difference in runs allowed: Philadelphia Phillies, 53 runs

 

Smallest difference in wins: Tie—Miami/Atlanta, 2 wins

Smallest difference in runs scored: Atlanta Braves, 5 runs

Smallest difference in runs scored: Washington Nationals 6 runs

 

We finally have some disagreement at the top of the standings! PECOTA has the Mets winning the NL East and FanGraphs projects the National to take the division. Vegas has the Nationals as the slight favorite. Both teams are on a tier above the rest of the division.

The Nationals won the division last year and had the second-most wins in the National League, with 95. They are projected to win 87 by PECOTA and 90 by FanGraphs. The big difference this year looks to be runs allowed. The Nats allowed just 612 runs last year, which was the second-fewest in baseball after the Cubs. This year, they are projected to allow 685 runs by PECOTA and 679 by FanGraphs. That increase accounts for 6 or 7 fewer wins.

After the Nationals and Mets, the rest of the division is projected to finish in the same order by both systems. The Marlins look like a third place team, followed by the Braves and the Phillies. Vegas sees it similarly, with the Marlins sitting at 30/1 and the Braves and Phillies both being 60/1 longshots.

 

Home/MLB News