Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is set for a bounce-back season. Can he be a top trade candidate? MLB Rumors are buzzing on the matter…
MLB rumors or the lack-there-of on Miguel Cabrera being traded suggests there is a tough market for him to be traded. From a baseball standpoint it seems logical to trade him to get some prospects to further their rebuild, however, the financials say otherwise.
The Detroit Tigers in 2018 are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball.
Fangraphs suggests as of now they are only set to win 71 games in 2018. While my Predator Baseball projects them at a mere 64 wins for next season. Either way, they are going to be a bottom dweller.
Miguel Cabrera is coming off his worst season in his career in 2017. He finished with only 117 hits, 16 home runs, and 60 runs batted in. For most players that really is not a bad season, but for Miguel Cabrera that is not good at all.
My Predator Baseball also suggests that he was a below average hitter last season worth a -0.28 wins below average. In addition to that, he only finished with 38 extra base hits in 529 plate appearances.
What does this mean for next season?
Well, apparently not much. Both Fangraphs and my Predator Baseball are expecting a bounce-back campaign in 2018 for Miggy.
Fangraphs projects him to hit 25 big flies and drive in 82 runs next season along with a .877 OPS. In conjunction with that, they see his weighted on-base average creeping up there to .368.
Predator Baseball sees similar production for Miggy. I too have him projected with a .368 weight on-base average just with a slightly lower .870 OPS. In total, I see him as about 1.60 wins above average next season if he can stay healthy.
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The problem with Miguel Cabrera is his contract. He still has 6 years guaranteed worth $184 million dollars left. Plus, options for 2024 and 2025 worth $30 million a piece with an $8 million dollar buyout.
For a player entering his age 34 season with that kind of money left, the Detroit Tigers are stuck.
There have not been any rumors that Miguel Cabrera has expressed interest in being traded and not part of their rebuild process, but who could blame him if he did? Either way, longevity is going to be the issue in trading him alongside his massive contract.
Here is my Predator Baseball 10-year outlook for him:
As you can see, the projections show he will at least be above average for the next couple seasons. Except, he will be overpaid in the remaining 6 seasons of his contract by over $125 million, not including the buyout of $ 8 million or for some odd reason mutually agree for 2024 or 2025.
The trade options for the Detroit Tigers on Miguel Cabrera are gloomy. Especially in this slow market. It seemed hard enough to trade Giancarlo Stanton, who also has a big contract, but is much younger and came off an MVP season.
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Time will tell on these MLB rumors. Unless Detroit eats a considerable amount of money on this, Miguel Cabrera will finish his career in a Tigers uniform.