Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins Trade Deadline Rumors

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MIAMI, FL – JUNE 11: J.T. Realmuto #11 of the Miami Marlins celebrates after hitting a two run home run during the game against the San Francisco Giants at Marlins Park on June 11, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Rob Foldy/Miami Marlins via Getty Images) /

The Miami Marlins were expected to have pieces to sell off at the MLB deadline. Which players involved in Marlins rumors should we pay attention to this month?

The Miami Marlins came out of the all-star break 16 games below .500. This wasn’t a shock to anyone. After the Marlins new ownership spent the off-season unloading the stars of the team, the Marlins were going to be bad. However, a number of surprising pitcher performances have given them a number of interesting pieces to continue building for the future.

Many will talk about starting rotation options, though with the Miami Marlins, it’s basically boiled down to one now – Dan Straily. Straily was acquired in a trade that sent some much better pieces to the Cincinnati Reds that the Marlins would sure like to have back.

Straily has come back after a rough opening to his season to put up numbers worthy of a mid- to back-rotation option for a club in need of such a piece, with a 4.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 78 1/3 innings. As in most of his career, control and the long ball have been his biggest issues on the season, as he’s allowed 31 home runs the last two seasons, and if he would not have had some injury issues this year that caused him to miss some time, he would be right on pace for that same number this year.

The other two Miami Marlins veteran starters that could be of interest at the trade deadline have been a mixed bag this year. Wei-Yin Chen has a 5.75 ERA this year after missing much of the 2017 season due to injury. He has been better over his last four starts, however, against some pretty good clubs, putting up a 3.63 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 4/21 BB/K ratio over 22 1/3 innings, which could entice a team, though his big contract through the 2020 season would likely have to be eaten by the Marlins to swing a deal.

The other pitcher who will likely draw some interest is Jose Urena, who has posted a 4.39 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and a 1.22 WHIP over 108 2/3 innings this season. He’s eligible for arbitration for the first time this season and likely would make 7 figures, so the Miami Marlins could shop him in an attempt to cut costs for next season.

Next: The big fish

The Centerpiece: J.T. Realmuto

Once Stanton, Gordon, Yellich, and Ozuna were traded, the countdown began on Realmuto’s days in Miami. Realmuto still has two and a half season of team control, but that time goes by fast (as the Orioles learned with Manny Machado).

Kevin Kraczowski over at Marlin Maniac wrote about the “trade conundrum” Realmuto creates for the Marlins. Every day Realmuto remains a Marlin decreases his trade value. However, he’s also the only game-changing player on Miami’s roster.

Marlins’ fans resistance to moving Realmuto is understandable. He’s the only big-time contributor left on the roster. But, this team needs far too much to compete before Realmuto is a free-agent. Marlins’ ownership has made clear that they will not be willing to spend the money necessary to keep a player of Realmuto’s caliber in Miami.

The Marlins will not be competitive over the next few seasons with or without Realmuto. Ownership made that a certainty when they handled the offseason the way that they did. Furthermore, Realmuto is a catcher. Catching takes a toll on every player’s body and the longer the Marlins hold onto Realmuto the greater a chance of injury could dampen his value.

The next question becomes what that value is. The Washington Nationals have long been tied to Realmuto dating back to last offseason. However, the Nationals rumors cooled off once it became clear they would not surrender either of their top prospects Carter Kieboom or Victor Robles.

The Nationals signed Matt Wieters to give them a solid backstop work. He hasn’t come through. The Nationals catchers have produced the worst WAR in baseball according to FanGraphs and the eye-test backs that up.

The Red Sox only rank one spot higher on FanGraphs leaderboard. Their catching situation was even more exasperated by Christian Vazquez‘s recent finger injury. However, the Sox lack the quality prospects to give the Marlins a fair package.

The Yankees and Dodgers have both the win-now mentality and needed prospects, but lack the need at catcher to make it worth their while. The Astros offer an intriguing match, but Max Stassi has proven good enough to justify standing pat.

So we return to the Nationals. They have the prospects to get the deal done and have massively under-performed in Bryce Harper‘s last year before free agency. The Nationals need to make a big splash to catch up and compete with the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. Realmuto would be that move.

If the Nationals are the team, Kieboom or Robles will still have to be in the deal. Robles was, in many ways, supposed to be the heir apparent to Harper in case he left in free agency. However, now that Juan Soto has emerged, Robles is more expendable.

If the Miami Marlins move Realmuto, expect him to head to the Nationals for a package of three to four prospects. Robles will be the centerpiece, but the Marlins should get another one of the Nats top 10 prospects and another in the top 15 or 20. It will be hard for Marlins fans to stomach, but this is the quickest path to relevance in Miami.

Next: Plethora of Bullpen arms

The Bullpen Pieces: Kyle Barraclough, Adam Conley, Drew Steckenrider, Brad Ziegler

One thing never changes in July: contenders search the market for relievers. Bullpens have become more important than ever in the playoffs. Furthermore, every team can almost always find some marginal upgrade.

The Miami Marlins have a number of intriguing bullpen pieces. Brad Ziegler is the only rental, the Marlins have no reason to keep him. Ziegler leads the league in appearances (48), but he is no longer a legitimate high-leverage reliever. With an annual salary of $9m, don’t expect Ziegler to be more than a throw-in. It’s more likely he gets moved in August, when the Marlins will just want to unload as much of the contract as they can.

Kyle Barraclough is the coveted arm. He has been an excellent setup man in Miami for the past three seasons. This season he holds a 1.28 ERA and 10 K/9 over 42.1 innings. It should be noted, Barraclough’s peripherals do suggest he’s been more solid than dominant (3.63 FIP/4.02 XFIP). Regardless, the 28 year old with 3 years of team control remaining will be highly sought after.

The Phillies, Red Sox, Braves, and Dodgers have all been directly linked to Barraclough, but when it comes to relievers any contender is in play. After all, no one had connected Mets’ closer Jeurys Familia to Oakland until yesterday. The Mets and A’s finalized a Familia trade today.

Barraclough won’t bring back a player like Francisco Mejia (the top prospect the Padres received for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber), but he should bring back a pair of prospects that will rank among the organization’s top 15 and another tertiary piece with some upside.

The Miami Marlins moved Adam Conley to the bullpen this season after a few mediocre seasons in the rotation. Now he looks like a legitimate left-handed setup option. Conley’s peripherals (11 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9) back up his 2.84 ERA. He has shown the ability to get out righties and lefties (both are hitting .146 against him) giving a team extra flexibility.

Like Barraclough, Conley has three years of team control remaining. However, he lacks Barraclough’s track record of success. With Brad Hand already off the market, and Zach Britton soon to follow the market will be dearth of left-handed options. With that in mind, Conley should be able to get a similar return to Baraclough and could even be packaged with him considering the Dodgers,and Red Sox have shown interest in him as well.

The Miami Marlins have one more young controllable reliever. Drew Steckenrider is only in his second season, but is already putting strong numbers. His ERA this season is a solid 3.47, but a 2.97 FIP suggests he may have been even better.

Just like Barraclough and Conley, the Red Sox and Dodgers have show interest in Steckenrider, but with 5 years of team control I actually would be surprised to see him on the move. Steckenrider isn’t dominating enough to justify giving up a package equivalent to what it would take to get Barraclough or Conley, but the extra control will probably make that the case

Next: Outlook

Marlins’ brass expect Lewis Brinson to lead the Marlins into the future and he should have more help soon. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Miami Marlins Summation

The Miami Marlins have some interesting decisions to make at the deadline. Between Realmuto and their relievers Miami very well could acquire over a half dozen prospects. Their starters could fetch a few more. However, it’ll be difficult to get full value for each player if they’re all on the move.