MLB Free Agency: Players who could rebuild their value with one-year deals

A number of players in MLB free agency this year could benefit from taking a one-year deal.

There has long been a discussion of the hypothetical player who is so confident in his skills that he takes one-year deals every single year to maximize his earning potential. It’s long been known that when, for example, the Mariners offer $24 million per year to Robinson Cano in a deal that will go into his 40s, they don’t expect him to be worth $24 million as a 41-year-old, but they are basically paying him long-term for his short-term production. But if a player only asked for one year, teams would be able to offer more money without having to worry about his future decline.

Nevertheless, the bargaining chip of future security that a team can offer a player ultimately makes it so that an elite player makes less than his true market value. Fangraphs has a tool that creates a dollar figure for a player-season based on his WAR and the average cost of a win on the free agent market. Based on this figure, Mike Trout was worth $78.5 million to the Angels in 2018, yet Trout made just north of $34 million in 2018, since he was willing to take the long-term security of a six-year. $144.5 million deal before the 2014 season.

One so far

The closest thing there is to the idea of a player taking one-year deals every season is the idea of the “pillow contract,” where a player takes a one-year deal with the hope of re-establishing his value for the next offseason. This was in the news last week when 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson signed a one-year, $23 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.

Donaldson is not far removed from MVP form, but after a 2018 season where he only played 52 games and wasn’t quite himself when he was on the field. Donaldson is hoping to improve his stock and get a big deal after the 2019 season. Let’s take a look at some other players who could rebuild their value by taking a one-year deal and re-entering free agency next year.

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper‘s free agency has been a topic of discussion for years. Particularly after his monstrous 2015 campaign, Harper looked poised to make a boatload of money as a rare 26-year-old free agent. However, Harper has not lived up to the lofty standards of his 2015 season, although he has still been a very good player.

Nevertheless, MLB Trade Rumors projects Harper to receive a record-breaking 14-year/$420 million deal, which would make it seem a bit crazy to take a one-year deal instead. But there is good reason to believe that Harper will not get that amount this offseason following a down-season by the lofty standards he has set for himself.

By wRC+, Fangraphs’ all-encompassing park-adjusted offensive stat, Harper was the 17th-best hitter in baseball, which is certainly good, but nowhere near the player that we all know he can be. There have also been some questions about Harper’s defense that could also be a hindrance for teams looking to sign him to a long-term deal this offseason.

Harper’s young age could also be in his favor if he decides to sign a one-year deal, as he is a long way from his decline phase so he should not have to worry about a steep decline in 2019. Harper could possibly sign a $40 million deal for 2019, and if he were able to put up a season anything close to his 2015 MVP season, it’s likely that he would be able to break the $500 million threshold after next season.

Struggling on the biggest stage

It is not very clear how much MLB GMs care about playoff performance, but if they do, there probably isn’t anyone who hurt his stock as much as former Dodgers’ catcher Yasmani Grandal.

On the surface, Grandal is one of baseball’s most valuable assets. In his career, he is a 17 percent better than average on offense based on wRC+, which is especially valuable for a player at the offensively-barren position of catcher. On top of that, Grandal is among the best pitcher-framers in baseball, as Baseball Prospectus has rated him 136.8 runs-above-average in his young career.

A catcher with well above-average skills in offense and defense would seem to be a $100 million player, but MLB Trade Rumors only projects him to make $64 million over four years. Part of that may be due to his performance in the playoffs, when Grandal got a ton of bad press for his poor defense.

There is certainly more to defense than pitch framing, so teams may have legitimate gripes about Grandal’s defense, but it does still seem like he’s overlooked despite being one of the most valuable players in the game. If Grandal can sign a one-year deal, it’s possible that he can improve his stock and get a larger contract next season.

Nevertheless, Grandal is entering his age-30 season, so he might want to cash in now before he begins his decline, and it’s also worth noting that Grandal turned down the $17.9 million qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Still, he is the kind of player who could greatly improve his value after a one-year deal for 2019.