MLB Trends: The death of the power hitter contract on the horizon
For years, the MLB has been all about the power hitter as they have garnered massive contracts ranging upwards of $30 million annually. Have MLB trends changed?
With the J.D. Martinez signing in the last off-season, the minimal money that Mike Moustakas made in 2018, and the recent signing of Nelson Cruz, the financial demand for the power hitter appears to be on the decline in MLB trends.
Instead, it looks like general managers and owners are showing more interest in players who have more than a big bat.
What a speedy, multi-tool player makes in this market
Take Andrew McCutchen. The speedy outfielder signed a four-year deal with the Phillies worth an average annual value of $12.5 million. He hit 20 home runs, hit .255/.368/.424, and stole 14 bases at age 32. As Cutch has aged, he is no longer an above-average outfielder, but he can hold his own. And, don’t forget, he’s got an MVP trophy in his case. He’s a multi-tool player and is being rewarded for his abilities all over the field.
What the big hitters aren’t making in this market
Then, there’s Nelson Cruz, who just signed a one-year deal with the Twins for $14 million for one year, with an option for 2020. In his four seasons with the Mariners, he hit .284/.362/.546 with 163 home runs. In 2017, he led the league in RBI with 119 with 39 of them being his very own. Cruz will be 39 on July 1. He’s a DH. That’s it. A few years ago, he would have made significantly more.
And, then, there’s J.D. Martinez. This guy learned from one of the best in the business – Miguel Cabrera (who will make $30 million for several more years with the Tigers). Martinez, who is 31, was the one big name on the market in the 2017-2018 off-season. He signed for $110 million for five years. He was hoping for something closer to $200 million and for more years. Instead, he ended up with an average annual value of $22 million. For that bargain price, Martinez hit .330/.402/.629 for the Red Sox. He had 43 home runs and led the league with 130 RBI.
Mike Moustakas is another big hitter who just isn’t getting paid. After setting the single-season home-run record for the Royals in 2017, they gave him a qualifying offer. He turned it down only to get signed for a fraction of it by the Royals. He’s a free agent again, after the Brewers paid him $1 million not to play for them.
It appears that teams are no longer giving home run mashers the money they think they deserve – because home run kings used to get big contracts and long terms. It looks like teams are ready to sign players, but for shorter contracts and less money.
The conversation starter and a serious problem in Baltimore
Jonah Kerl of CBS Sports wrote about the changing tune of the MLB front office, but he failed to mention the contract that may have done in the power hitters of today: Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles.
While there are certainly many reasons why the home run kings are making what they used to, the Davis albatross contact has to be one of them. The Orioles signed him through 2023, and they are paying him $23 million per year. This all happened after he hit 47 home runs in 2015 and 53 in 2013. Both years, he led the league.
But, since signing the monster contract (which prohibited the Orioles from keeping Manny Machado) Davis has been one of the worst hitters in the MLB. Especially for the size and duration of his contract. His drop off was dramatic and quick. In 2018, he hit .168/.243/.296 with 16 home runs and 49 RBI. His OPS+ was 50. Yup … 50. When they could have had Machado, who had an OPS+ of 146 in 2018. Pathetic.
More from MLB News
- MLB Power Rankings: Atlanta Braves still on top with major shifting below them
- Caesars MLB Promo Code: Two Shots at Picking the World Series Winner!
- MLB Power Rankings: Atlanta Braves still on top amid a big shake-up in top 10
- DraftKings MLB Promo: Bet $5 on an Anytime Home Run, Win $150 Bonus GUARANTEED
- MLB Power Rankings: After MLB trade deadline, gap is closing on Atlanta Braves
If the Davis issue doesn’t scare away front office staffs from signing players because they can hit home runs, then maybe the Mark Trumbo contract will. After he led the league with 47 home runs in 2016 (he must have heard that the Orioles like home runs), the O’s signed him through 2019 for $37.5 million. While his contract was nowhere near the size of Davis’s, it was still pretty silly – especially with Machado – a radically better baseball player – working his way through arbitration.
They’d be traded if they could be traded – maybe
Davis and Trumbo are certainly not the only contracts that teams wish they could cut. Odds are good that aging and oft-injured players like Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols would be traded, if they could be. Of course, the pair still draw fans to the game, as many fans appreciate what these two did in their glory days – so there is still more value in their contracts that in those of Davis and Trumbo.
What fans want to see instead
But, the players who are expected to bring the record-setting contracts are not the big home run hitters. They’re the guys like Machado, Bryce Harper, and soon – Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado. Yes, they can hit home runs (we saw Harper win the Home Run Derby in July), but they can also do everything else – and just as well.
Young player shares parents' gift on Twitter. dark. Next
The 2017-2018-2019 markets could be an exciting turning point in the MLB. Of course, watching hitters like Cabrera, Pujols, Martinez, and Giancarlo Stanton mash home runs is fun. But watching players like Harper, Betts, Trout, Arenado, and even Javier Baez hit, run, and field between the lines is even more enjoyable. They should be rewarded for their total athletic ability – not just the ability to hit a ball out of the park.